Two conference champions meeting is what makes bowl season great. Today's Myrtle Beach Bowl should be one of the month’s most anticipated, one that both the Kennesaw State Owls and the Western Michigan Broncos will absolutely take seriously.
My Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan predictions and free college football picks for Friday, December 19 look to capitalize on the Broncos’ over-reliance on the run, given the underdog’s strength in stopping the rush.
Kickoff comes at 11:00 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan predictions for the Myrtle Beach Bowl
Who will win the Myrtle Beach Bowl?
Advanced numbers all see these two conference champions as quite evenly matched, with Kennesaw State holding a slight edge in most respected rankings. Not much of one, let’s be clear, but still an edge.
Then why is Western Michigan a slight favorite? Neither roster is expected to suffer much from opt-outs, though this bowl season has already shown things can change moments before kickoff.
A five-game winning streak certainly helps the Broncos’ cause in the eyes of oddsmakers, but it is being overvalued. Trust Kennesaw State. The wrong team is favored.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan best bet: Kennesaw State moneyline (+128)
Western Michigan runs the ball at the eighth-highest relative rate in the country, 10.9% more often than an average team would in a given game state. There is an odd wrinkle among many such teams: They do not run the ball well.
Of the 10 teams that run the ball most often, five of them run it poorly, losing expected points on their average rush attempt, per CFB-graphs. Of those five, four are in the MAC.
It's a personnel issue. They're not running the ball that often because it yields great results; they're doing it because they know better than to trust their passing games.
Two of those four actually throw the ball worse than they run it, again in terms of expected points added (or lost) per dropback, and a third (Bowling Green) ranks in the Bottom 20 in both regards.
All of which is to say, Western Michigan is going to run the ball in the Myrtle Beach Bowl no matter what, even if it's facing a Top 15 Group of Five defense against the run, as it is. And the Broncos should not run the ball well.
Doubt that strong in the favorite’s entire offensive approach creates plenty of reason to take the underdog on the moneyline.
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Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan same-game parlay
While 48 is a key number and thus, an Under 48 would feel far more comfortable, taking this Under fits with taking the underdog on the moneyline in that both doubt Western Michigan’s run-heavy offense finding yardage.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan SGP
- Kennesaw State moneyline
- Under 47.5
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan game predictions
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan spread prediction
Through the first four bowl games this season, the winning team also covered the spread, including two underdogs. Apply that trend to all of bowl season, aside from the College Football Playoff.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan Over/Under prediction
FanDuel sets Western Michigan’s team total at 24.5, a number the Broncos fell short of in four of their last six games. The two exceptions came at Eastern Michigan and at Northern Illinois, two of the three worst rush defenses in the MAC and two of the four worst in the country.
Against a reasonable defense, expect WMU to fall well short of its team total and thus likely keep this game short of 48 points.
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan odds
- Spread: Kennesaw State +3.5 (-118) | Western Michigan -3.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Kennesaw State +134 | Western Michigan -158
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan trend to know
Kennesaw State was an underdog against Group of Five teams twice this season, winning both games outright. Find more college football betting trends for Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan.
How to watch Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan
| Location | Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC |
| Date | Friday, December 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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