Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tough Sledding for the Offenses

Conference USA is where the action is tonight, and we have a terrific one with Jacksonville State taking on Middle Tennessee at 8:00 p.m. ET. 

Jacksonville State is off to an impressive 4-1 start in their first season of FBS play but is a 3.5-point road underdog — according to the college football odds — against a Middle Tennessee group hoping to end a two-game losing streak. 

I break down the best bet on the board in my free college football picks for Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee below. 

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee best odds

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee picks and predictions

Both groups lean heavily on their respective defenses, which is why my best bet is for this game to stay Under 51.5 at Caesars.

If you're a low-scoring, hard-hitting tackle football fan, Wednesday night's C-USA matchup between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders is right up your alley.

JSU already has eight interceptions and three fumble recoveries for a defense allowing 310 total yards of offense with a 19th-best 14.8 points allowed per contest. Their 11 takeaways are third in the conference, with the 25th-most sacks per game in the nation (2.8). 

The Gamecocks defense allows an efficient 197 passing yards along with a tidy 113 rushing yards per contest, and it’s a safe bet Jax-State will be throwing the kitchen sink at sophomore QB Nicholas Vattiato on Wednesday night.

Vattiato has thrown for 200+ yards in four consecutive games, but he’s coming off a two-interception night against Western Kentucky, has thrown five picks against seven TDs this season, and has been sacked 11 times. 

Vattiato is a dual threat with an additional 139 rushing yards and a score, RB Jaiden Credle is probably the top overall offensive threat, and the Blue Raiders signal-caller also has a pair of wideouts with 200+ receiving yards. Two more have hauled in over 100 yards — Middle Tennessee has good offensive pieces but hasn't been able to put them together. 

The Blue Raiders defense is what has kept them in games. Over the past two seasons, Middle Tennessee has 62 forced takeaways, and the five they've recorded this season have occurred over their past three games. They’ve already batted down 13 passes with a pair of picks and have dropped opposing QBs nearly twice per contest.

Middle Tennessee allows 394 yards of offense with 253.2 passing yards and 141 rushing yards per contest, but those numbers are skewed. Alabama laid 431 yards on the Blue Raiders but hasn’t allowed 400 yards in their last two. 

Jacksonville State is just 77th in the country in scoring offense. They’ve used two different QBs this season — dual threat Logan Smothers leads the group in passing yards without an interception and is the team's second-leading rusher with 253 yards and five TDs. Zion Webb has an interception on 43 passing attempts with 85 rushing yards.

RB Malik Jackson has five TDs with 505 rushing yards on 77 carries, and whoever's behind center has three wideouts with a combined 428 receiving yards with three TDs. The O-line has allowed six sacks for an offensive group averaging 363 yards of offense per contest.

Finally, MTSU's defense will fight hard in hopes of avoiding a 1-5 record. The defense needs to get the job done, and they will against Jacksonville State's underwhelming offense. The Blue Raiders offense has been inconsistent, and that bodes well for this game staying Under the total.

My best bet: Under 51.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee same-game parlay

Under 51.5 (-110)

Jacksonville State +3.5 (-110)

+229 at FanDuel

The defenses are much better than the respective offenses. The Gamecocks are 4-1 to the Under while the Blue Raiders are 2-3 O/U.

JSU is 3-1-1 ATS this season, and it's hard to see them as more than a 2.5-point underdog. Middle Tennessee is 1-4-0 ATS and their slow, sluggish offensive starts have been the culprit. Look for that trend to continue and the Gamecocks to cover this 3.5-point spread. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

Middle Tennessee opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Caesars, but that number has moved to -3.5 (-110). In addition to the Under, I'm on the Gamecocks to cover the spread, and here's why. 

Jax State’s Jackson is 16th in the nation in rushing yards with two consecutive 100+ rushing games and the Gamecocks have scampered for 100+ in 22 consecutive games. Middle Tennessee allowed 147 rushing yards with a pair of rushing TDs last week against Western Kentucky with a season average of 140.

The Gamecocks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record and have won outright in four of their past five. Jacksonville State is also 4-3-1 ATS over their previous eight away contests.

Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez is the ninth-most active winningest coach in FBS history and his Gamecocks are 13-3 with Rodriguez at the helm. 

Since 2021, Middle Tennessee has scored the third most defensive TDs in the country (10), with 54 total blocked kicks over their last 217 games. This season, they haven’t scored a defensive TD or blocked a kick.

This contest features two of the best punters in the nation. Gamecocks punter Jack Dawson averages 42.5 yards per punt, with 11 punts landing inside the 20-yard line. Blue Raiders punter Miles Tillman enters the Jax State game with a 43.4-yard average and six landing inside the 20, which would rank 12th nationally if he had enough attempts. 

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Blue Raiders' last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and the Under is 8-2 in the Gamecocks' last 10 games as a road underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee.

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee game info

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Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee weather

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