Autzen Stadium will host one of the most important games of the college football season when Indiana and Oregon square off in a possible Big Ten title preview on Saturday.
Each team comes off a needed bye week, and College Gameday will be on site ahead of a game with major College Football Playoff and conference implications.
Let’s take an early look at our Indiana vs. Oregon predictions with a pair of college football picks below.
Indiana vs Oregon predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Indiana vs Oregon spread pick: Oregon -8.5
As impressive as the Indiana Hoosiers looked against Illinois, there were serious concerns after the win over Iowa.
The Hoosiers managed just 337 yards of offense against an Iowa defense that allowed 400 to Rutgers, a team that's now 0-2 in conference play. They also went 6-for-15 on third down against a Hawkeyes defense ranked 62nd in third-down success.
Most concerning was how the Hoosiers allowed the Hawkeyes — a team ranked 107th in pass EPA and 105th in passing success — to have one of their more efficient passing days of the season before Mark Gronowski got injured. In fact, the Hawkeyes had a late-down passing success rate of 47%, which for them is astronomically high.
This was Indiana’s first major test after obliterating an Illinois team that might not be very good, and one has to wonder if the Hoosiers would have won had Gronowski not gotten hurt. Traveling to Autzen Stadium and taking on Dante Moore is a whole other animal.
The Oregon Ducks have gotten two weeks to recover from that thrilling win over Penn State, and Moore showed immense poise against the Nittany Lions and that raucous atmosphere. Now it’s his turn to have his fans behind him, and I’m not sure Indiana will be up for the task after the cross-country trip.
Iowa had a havoc rate of 15% on defense, vastly outperforming the 9% mark it had coming into that game. Oregon will do enough defensively to cover the spread, which has dropped down to -8.5 after opening as a double-digit number.
Early Indiana vs Oregon total pick: Under 55.5
Indiana has one of the least explosive offenses in college football. The Hoosiers thrive on being methodical and having a high rate of success, but that won’t be enough to put up big points against the Ducks.
The Hoosiers rank Bottom 15 nationally in overall explosive rate, and will find some success against an Oregon defense ranked 68th in rush success rate. However, the Ducks rank Top 20 in success rate against the pass, and if the Hoosiers fall behind the chains, we'll see some drives stall out.
On the flip side, the Ducks needed 13 points in overtime to continue their 30-point streak to start the season, but they also scored just 34 against Northwestern and 41 against a rough Oregon State defense. Indiana has a rush stuff rate of 33%, and it will be tough for the Ducks to put together successful drives consistently.
Both of these defenses rank in the Top 10 in quality drive rate allowed and available yards allowed, and they each rank in the Top 25 in early down success rate.
I see this as a game where Oregon struggles again to reach 30 points, but even if the Ducks do so, they’ll hold Indiana closer to 20 on their way to the cover. That will allow us to benefit from the rising total to stay Under the number.
Indiana vs Oregon odds
- Indiana vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -8.5
- Indiana vs. Oregon moneyline: Indiana +250, Oregon -290
- Indiana vs. Oregon Over/Under: 55.5
How to watch Indiana vs Oregon
- Indiana vs. Oregon matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Eugene, OR
- Venue: Autzen Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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