Indiana vs Michigan Odds, Picks, and Predictions: McCarthy Showcases Heisman Potential in Ann Arbor

J.J. McCarthy is among the top Heisman candidates this season, and we expect the Wolverines' star quarterback to continue to shine when the No. 2 Wolverines play host to the Hoosiers on Saturday. Read more in our Indiana vs. Michigan betting picks.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Oct 14, 2023 • 07:54 ET • 4 min read
J.J. McCarthy Michigan Wolverines NCAAF
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No program has been as dominant as Michigan to start the season.

The Wolverines have walked through every opponent like a squad of jacked-up mascots would when playing against children at halftime of a big game… and it’s hard to imagine Indiana will be the team to buck the trend.

The poor Hoosiers are the next overmatched opponent that Jim Harbaugh’s squad will have the pleasure of dismantling in front of the raging home crowd at the Big House. The question is, with the college football odds favoring the Wolverines so heavily in every way, where do we find the best value when betting this game?

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan on Saturday, October 14.

Indiana vs Michigan best odds

Indiana vs Michigan picks and predictions

Looking at Michigan’s player props can be tough with the odds being heavily on the Wolverines' side. Right now, running back Blake Corum is billed at -700 as an anytime touchdown scorer while receiver Roman Wilson is at -150.

Those two have been such great bets to score each week — Corum leads the country in rushing TDs with 10 and Wilson is second in receiving TDs with eight. Corum scores so frequently that he’s still juiced to -200 for two or more touchdowns.

With Corum’s odds not giving us the bang for our buck and Wilson being a little riskier a proposition when looking at a first half TD (+130) or two-plus TDs (+275), we head to the yards props.

The fear is that a big lead will take away from J.J. McCarthy topping his passing yards total (220.5), which in turn hurt Wilson’s yards (59.5) and Cornelius Johnson’s (47.5). Meanwhile, some books aren’t listing Corum or Donovan Edwards' rushing yards.

That leads us back to McCarthy, who sits at a listed total of 14.5 rushing yards in Week 7, awfully low for an uber-athletic quarterback who has topped that number in each of his last three games and four of his last five.

This season, McCarthy has rushed for 133 yards at 6.7 per carry in six games. He’s averaging just over three carries per game for 22.2 yards after averaging 21.8 in 14 games as a sophomore.

McCarthy has averaged just 19 pass attempts per game in the Wolverines' three Big Ten matchups this season while averaging 32.6 rushing yards in those games. We’ve seen him be a playmaker both out of structure and on designed runs this year, especially when Michigan builds these big leads and doesn’t need him to throw much.

This is also an Indiana team that’s been bullied in the trenches this season and ranks 85th in EPA per rush on defense. The Hoosiers have also given up 156.4 rushing yards per game, 13th worst in the Power Five, and are allowing 4.7 per carry, seventh worst in the Power Five.

With McCarthy’s athleticism and surprising elusiveness in the open field and the Wolverines' dominant offensive line play — they’re averaging 185.2 rushing yards per game, and are 10th in EPA per play on offense — he should only need a few carries to go Over 14.5. And keeping in mind that sacks work against rushing totals in college football, McCarthy's O-line has kept him clean as can be this season. He’s been sacked just three times in six games.

Harbaugh clearly believes he has one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this is the perfect game for offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to showcase that McCarthy should be in the Heisman conversation.

My best bet: J.J. McCarthy Over 14.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Indiana vs Michigan same-game parlay

J.J. McCarthy Over 14.5 rushing yards (-115)

Blake Corum anytime touchdown (-700)

Over 45.5 (-110)

There are no sure things in college football, but throwing a Corum anytime touchdown into a same-game parlay never feels like a bad choice.

The All-American running back has 10 rushing touchdowns in six games and has scored in every game this season. With the Hoosiers defense having given up eight rushing touchdowns in five games, Corum should continue his TD streak this week.

If Corum is scoring, it’s going to help the game total Over hit. The Wolverines' defense makes it a tougher bet, but they’ve held their last two opponents to a combined 17 points while scoring enough to cash the Over in both games. 

With the Hoosiers’ shaky defense, they’ve hit the over the last two weeks as well, including against Maryland, who they gave up 44 points to.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Indiana vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

After opening with Michigan as between 33.5 and 34.5-point home favorites, the line settled in with the Wolverines at -33 and -33.5.

While Harbaugh’s squad has squashed teams this season, they’ve been much shakier against the spread where they’re just 2-4. The Wolverines have covered in their last two games against Nebraska and Minnesota, but have yet to cover in a game where they’ve been favored by more than 19 points.

Indiana is quite the opposite. While the Hoosiers have had trouble winning games outright, they can cover, even against the big dogs. Tom Allen’s team is 3-2 against the spread this season and covered in their opener as 30-point dogs to Ohio State. 

The total in this game has slowly dropped to around 45 or 45.5 after opening at 49.5 at most books.

Michigan is 2-4 when betting the Over this season, due in part to its defense holding teams to just 6.7 points per game, the best in the country. On the season, Indiana is 3-2 to the Over, clearing it all three times the total was below 50 points. 

Indiana vs Michigan betting trend to know

Indiana has hit the game total Over in seven of its last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Michigan.

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Indiana vs Michigan game info

Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

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