The next time Josh Heupel’s Tennessee Volunteers find offensive success against the Georgia Bulldogs will be the first time. The Volunteers have disappointed in nearly every aspect of their four meetings with Kirby Smart during the Heupel Era.
My Georgia vs. Tennessee predictions see no reason to expect that strong trend to change this weekend at kickoff at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 13.
Our best Georgia vs Tennessee SGP for Week 3
Covering the spread in four straight games against a conference opponent would be one thing, but Georgia has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations in this matchup by 8.6 points in those four matchups.
Remove a garbage-time touchdown, and that jumps past 10 points per meeting.
Sure, basing any bet on past trends is a worrying approach and one exclusively taken by too many bettors. But as long as the matchup is Kirby Smart vs. Josh Heupel, that trend stands out.
Smart knows how to defend this offense, and with Georgia’s defense looking like it might be the best one of the last three years, that trend should hold up.
Holding the Tennessee Volunteers in check should be enough to assure the final score never threatens an Over. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points against Georgia during Heupel’s four years, falling short of the Vols’ team total by an average of 10 points once removing that garbage-time touchdown in his debut season.
With a team total of 22.5 this week, reaching 17 points might be considered a Tennessee improvement.
Few annual matchups have been as one-sided as Kirby Smart vs. Josh Heupel.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 10, 2025
Georgia has covered the spread in all four meetings.
Tennessee has fallen short of its Team Total in all four meetings.
Remove garbage time, short by 10 pts/g.
Georgia vs Tennessee should remain one-sided pic.twitter.com/TYOdULuwfa
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' offense has taken a further step back this season with quarterback Gunner Stockton at the helm. Most likely, Smart will be content to play complementary and situational football, trusting his defense to procure a couple short fields and then emphasizing those chances with Stockton.
That is not exactly a recipe for a high-scoring game.
But Volunteers running back Star Thomas has three touchdowns this season and leads Tennessee in carries. The Vols have not thrown a touchdown pass against Georgia in three years, instead rushing for four touchdowns across those three games.
An argument can be made for instead betting on DeSean Bishop (one touchdown, 10 fewer carries than Thomas this season, albeit through only two games), but whatever you do, do not bet on Tennessee’s passing game.
The Vols have managed exactly one explosive passing play in each of the last three meetings. Smart knows how to defend Heupel’s approach too well.
FanDuel is offering users a 50% profit boost token on any wager this game, so you can boost this +1325 SGP to +1988.
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