Georgia vs Florida Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bulldogs Clamp Down on Gators

It's an SEC showdown on Saturday in the Swamp between Georgia and Florida. These two long-time rivals will stop at nothing to pull out the win, but our college football betting picks believe one side is being slightly undervalued. Read on to find out who!

Oct 28, 2023 • 11:58 ET • 4 min read

Is it possible the No. 1 team in the country is getting overlooked (and undervalued) heading into the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party?

The Georgia Bulldogs head into today's SEC matchup with the Florida Gators with a lot of questions surrounding the team. The biggest of which is what will the offense look like without All-American tight end Brock Bowers. Georgia has also had issues covering spreads, going just 2-5 ATS this season. 

Are the Bulldogs ripe for the picking like a fresh Georgia peach as 14.5-point favorites against the rival Gators... or are we in store for more of the same between these SEC rivals?

I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Georgia vs. Florida.

Georgia vs Florida best odds

Georgia vs Florida picks and predictions

Even though Georgia doesn’t have a signature win yet this season, (and probably won’t until the SEC title game), it is still the No. 1 team in the country. The fact the Bulldogs are 7-0 straight up and the reigning two-time national champions probably doesn’t hurt them in that department.

But Georgia enters the World’s Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party with some questions. While the Bulldogs have won every game this season they certainly haven’t looked perfect. Georgia has had to survive scares from both South Carolina and Auburn and has only covered the spread twice in its seven games.

And losing Brock Bowers is a big deal. The Bulldogs’ star tight end leads the team with 41 receptions for 566 yards and four touchdowns. But if there is a team that can overcome the loss of one of its star players, it’s Georgia. And as such, I think the Bulldogs are getting undervalued in this spot.

For starters, a matchup with rival Florida might just be what this team needs to kick itself into overdrive. We saw what the Bulldogs did in a similar position against Kentucky a few weeks ago. The Wildcats were riding high heading into that game but the Bulldogs held them to just 183 yards in a 51-13 beatdown. (A Kentucky team that has been Florida by the way).

Part of Georgia being undervalued here, is Florida might be a little overvalued as well. The Gators enter this matchup at 5-2 and quarterback Graham Mertz has put together back-to-back solid outings which includes throwing for 423 yards vs. South Carolina in their last game.

But the Bulldogs are not the Gamecocks. And while this is not the same Georgia defense as it has been the last couple of seasons, this unit is still no joke. Georgia still ranks eighth in opponent yards per play and third in opponent yards per pass attempt.

Mertz has a very high completion percentage but his yards per completion of 11.2 is one of the lowest marks in the country. The Bulldogs are also excellent tacklers who will keep everything in front of them in this matchup.

Mertz is also at his best when the run game is rolling. In Florida’s two losses against Utah and Kentucky, the team rushed for just 82 yards on 50 carries. Georgia’s defense allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season.

The other thing that stands out from those losses is that the Gators gave up an average of 217 rushing yards per game. And with Bowers out don’t be shocked if we see a heavy dose of Georgia backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton.

But don’t think that won’t mean the Bulldogs still won’t air it out a bit. I think this is a great opportunity for Carson Beck to show what he’s made of. Georgia does its thing by winning and covering the spread in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party for the third year in a row.

FanDuel US also has a 50% profit boost available for one bet on this game, which if applied would increase the price on this play to +136!

My best bet: Georgia -14.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 50% boost available

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Georgia vs Florida same-game parlay

Georgia -14.5

Method of first score: Georgia TD

Georgia team total Over 30.5

As always, our same-game parlay starts off with my best bet, which for this SEC showdown is Georgia to cover the 14.5-point chalk. And I’m betting the Bulldogs get off to a good start on their way to covering that spread.

Florida has fallen behind early in each of its two losses this season. They allowed Utah to storm out to a 17-3 lead, while Kentucky got up 23-0 before the Gators responded. So, we are adding Georgia to open the scoring in this game with a touchdown.

But that won’t be the only scoring the Bulldogs do. Even without Bowers, I think Beck will be good enough to get his team over the 30-point plateau. So, let’s close this SGP out with Georgia to hit the Over on its team total of 30.5. And if all three legs of this parlay hit it cashes a +230 ticket. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Georgia vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

Georgia opened as 14.5-point chalk for this matchup against rival Florida and that’s where the line remains as of Tuesday evening. Despite my feelings on the spread, bettors seem pretty split at this point with 51% of the Covers users taking the points with the Gators.

Remember, even though this is technically a home game for the Gators, it is being played on a neutral site at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 48.5 and it has been the Under that has seen the early action, driving the number down to 47 at some shops. This is likely due to the two good defenses, and the expected adjustment period for the Georgia offense in a world without Bowers. This number seems pretty close to me, so I’m staying away from the total.

Georgia vs Florida betting trend to know

Georgia is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings against Florida. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Florida.

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Georgia vs Florida game info

Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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