This year was supposed to be different for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators.
It was one of the most talented rosters that Gainesville had seen in years, led by quarterback DJ Lagway. But a stunning loss to in-state rival USF as 18-point favorites in the Swamp makes it feel like more of the same.
And next up? A trip to Death Valley at night to take on the LSU Tigers. My early Florida vs. LSU predictions break down why it could be a long night for the Gators and hint at some college football picks for this SEC showdown.
Florida vs LSU predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Florida vs LSU spread pick: LSU -7.5
The saying usually goes, “Only the Gators get out alive.” Welp. The Florida Gators got the horns from the USF Bulls and were belly up in the Swamp on Saturday night.
Not only was Florida outgained in the 18-16 loss, but the Gators were also plagued with what have become characteristic mistakes. Sure, turnovers and questionable decision-making, but even worse than that was the discipline. Florida committed 11 penalties for 103 yards, and all of a sudden, Billy Napier’s seat is hot once again.
It feels like asking a lot of the Gators to go into Death Valley, at night, and cover as 7.5-point underdogs, against an LSU Tigers team that looks like it has some real potential this season.
Now, LSU followed up its impressive win at Clemson’s Death Valley with a more workmanlike effort against Louisiana Tech. The Bayou Bengals won 23-7, unable to cover a 36.5-point spread. But while the Tigers’ offense was a little inconsistent, the defense actually might have some teeth this season.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker gave Cade Klubnik and Clemson fits before holding the Bulldogs to 154 yards of offense and a garbage-time touchdown. This Tigers defense is different and will be a problem this season.
This line hit the board at LSU -9.5 and quickly dipped to 7.5. Death Valley at night is one of the toughest atmospheres in college football to begin with. Mix in this LSU defense, and Florida will have trouble scoring.
Early Florida vs LSU total pick: Under 48.5
I’ve already broken down why I think the Gators' offense could be a little toothless in this matchup against the Tigers' defense. But scoring in general could be tough to come by in this matchup.
While LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy this season, he’s left a little to be desired through his first two games of the season.
Opening the season against an excellent Clemson defense was no joke, but in a game as 36.5-point favorites, Nuss was a somewhat inefficient 26-for-41 for 237 yards with one touchdown and an interception.
And if there is a glass-half-full part of this Gators’ team, it’s the defense. This is a really talented unit that can cause Nussmeier and the Tigers offense all sorts of problems. Florida returns seven starters on that side of the ball and can be extremely physical.
If the Gators can avoid the mental mistakes, they should be able to slow down Nussmeier and the Bayou Bengals at least.
Florida vs LSU odds
- Florida vs. LSU spread: LSU -7.5
- Florida vs. LSU moneyline: Florida +235, LSU -290
- Florida vs. LSU Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Florida vs LSU
- Florida vs. LSU matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Baton Rouge, LA
- Venue: Tiger Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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