Credit to the Indiana Hoosiers. Credit to Curt Cignetti. Credit to clear Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.
But do not overlook what the Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Tech Red Raiders did on Championship Saturday. Their title-game routs may be less memorable or dramatic than the Hoosiers’ 13-10 upset of the Ohio State Buckeyes, but an easy argument could be made that makes them all the more important.
Before the College Football Playoff bracket is finally released…
CFB Conference Championship Week overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Indiana’s win. It was impressive. Cignetti and the Hoosiers deserve all the praise and belief that comes with a 13-0 season and a Big Ten title. But…
Sportsbooks and oddsmakers certainly are not yet showing belief in Indiana.
By no means was that a pretty win against Ohio State. Indiana’s net success rate was barely better than negligible. It was, very much, a game decided by two excellent throws from Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Do not diminish those. Making those throws turns a very good team into a great one. But also do not think Indiana dominated Ohio State in any way.
The Hoosiers’ defensive line was impressive, though some of that effectiveness likely tied to Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin’s balky ankle.
There is a reason Indiana’s national title odds shortened to just +300 at FanDuel from +400 before the weekend while Ohio State remains the frontrunner at +230, down from about +185 during the week.
Douglas’s advice: Remember, no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Indiana played well, but its defense will not shut down an offense like Ohio State’s every round of the Playoff. And the Buckeyes played poorly, but we all saw what one poor performance did for Ohio State leading into the 2024 Playoff.
Full and final @Covers College Football Playoff bracket projection:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 7, 2025
It isn't that complicated.
1) Indiana
2) Ohio State
3) Georgia
4) Texas Tech
5) Oregon
6) Mississippi
7) Texas A&M
8) Oklahoma
9) Notre Dame
10) Alabama
11) Tulane
12) James Madison https://t.co/Oa3pDUWjgM pic.twitter.com/gc6s6rgfqZ
Don’t overreact to other movement in the National Championship odds over the weekend or even upon the bracket’s release.
Want to guess what odds improved the most this weekend? Was it Georgia’s thanks to a blowout of Alabama? Or Texas Tech’s after that laugh at BYU’s expense? Perhaps Tulane’s upon securing a Playoff bid?
Nope, nope and nope.
Notre Dame sat idle this week and saw its title odds shorten to +850 from +1000 during the week. Why?
Probably for the same reason that Oregon’s odds improved slightly, to +950 from +1000.
Hello, Indiana.
The Ducks were No. 5 in the most recent rankings from the Playoff selection committee, while the Irish were No. 10 but look poised to move up to No. 9 thanks to Alabama’s dismal performance on Saturday. In other words, suddenly both Oregon and Notre Dame are on Indiana’s side of the bracket rather than Ohio State’s.
And that betters their chances at winning it all.
Is that disrespectful of Indiana? Very much so. But these are the things we are able to glean from gambling odds, and when we disagree with them, that is when we bet.
Douglas’s advice: Or, don’t bet.
Do not bet any futures at this point. Really, don’t. It would be smarter to approach each team with a moneyline rollover attitude.
I was just kinda curious about a Notre Dame path.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 7, 2025
That would be one helluva Rose Bowl.
(Numbers do not include this week's result. Via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) https://t.co/2DagmMpHvF pic.twitter.com/0rcAjum9ti
Let’s take Notre Dame right now simply as the higher end of genuinely viable title contenders. The Irish will be favored at Oklahoma or Texas A&M in the first round. If indeed on the Indiana side of the bracket, Notre Dame will be a short underdog against the Hoosiers, just as the Irish may be against Texas Tech before possibly facing Ohio State in a 2024 rematch, with the Buckeyes again favored by about a touchdown.
This is all hypothetical, obviously, but looking at those odds with some very conservative math (moneylines of -250, +110, +110 and +180), a moneyline rollover of four Notre Dame wins would pay +1628, far better than that +850 hanging at FanDuel.
That math will apply to everyone in the field.
Don’t overreact to all nine conference championships going Under their totals and by an average of 11.9 points.
That is a notable sample size, but it is not necessarily a significant one. This thought does not need to go more in depth than that.
Douglas’s advice: There will be some talk in the next two weeks of doubting totals because of these nine games. Dismiss that talk.
Defenses have an advantage these days as there is no more difficult position to fill or replace in the transfer portal than offensive line. The cohesion needed along the offensive line is an increasing rarity in college football, much to defensive ends’ delight.
But with two weeks to game plan, plenty of bowl games and Playoff games will soar past their totals.
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CFB Conference Championship Week reactions to make
Do overreact to Texas Tech’s defense. It is the best in the country, and when combined with the Red Raiders’ difficulties finishing drives, every Texas Tech game moving forward should be a chance to bet the Under.
Texas Tech’s defense ranks in the Top 5 in the country in every advanced thought except points allowed per quality drive, where it ranks a disappointing No. 20, and that is mitigated by allowing quality drives on just 21.1% of opponent possessions entering the weekend, the best rate in the country per CFB-graphs.com.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech struggles to convert quality drives at what should be considered a championship rate. Scoring just 3.7 points per quality drive entering the weekend ranked No. 44 in the country, and that bad habit kept BYU in the mix for a long while on Saturday.
Of the Red Raiders’ first five drives to reach scoring territory against the Cougars, four did not find the end zone. Three more field goal attempts in the fourth quarter kept BYU alive for far too long. Few red flags are more glaring than to have 10 drives in scoring territory yield just two touchdowns.
Douglas’s advice: Texas Tech is an intriguing team. The Red Raiders look like they are championship caliber. But field goals will cost them against a more efficient offense. Stay off any big Texas Tech dreams. Instead, bet the Under for as long as the Red Raiders live.
And do overreact to Alabama’s disaster of a rushing offense. If the Tide miss the Playoff, the dramatic stat of rushing for -3 yards on Saturday will be the reason why.
Should that be enough to knock Alabama out of the Playoff? That is an argument for a different column. We are forward-looking here, not rage-baiting.
Even if you adjusted for Georgia’s three sacks, the Tide took 13 carries for 20 yards on Saturday. That is, in a word, bad.
Alabama ran for more than four yards per carry against a Power Four opponent exactly once this season, last week at Auburn. Alabama fell short of 100 yards rushing in four of its last five games against Power Four opponents.
Prefer advanced numbers? Alright. The Tide rushing game was arguably an asset against Oklahoma as well as against Auburn, but those were the only two games among 11 now against Power Four opponents in which Alabama’s rushing attack averaged positive expected points added (EPA) per rushing attempt, per CFB-graphs.com.
Plenty of teams throw the ball more often than the average team would in a given game state. In fact, by definition, about half the country does. Entering the weekend, Alabama ranked No. 13 in the country in passing rate over expected at 8.6%. But rough math says the Tide threw the ball about 11% more often than expected in their final six games of the regular season.
For context, that would rank No. 3 or 4 across the whole season, trailing only Hawaii and Pittsburgh.
Alabama is not throwing the ball so often simply because that works. It is also doing it because the Tide running game is worse than broken; it does not exist.
Douglas’ advice: If the Tide make the Playoff, do not talk yourself into any futures on them because of Ty Simpson’s accuracy and the defenses’ strengths. This offense is too one-dimensional. If anything, also take the Under on Alabama games for as long as the Tide survive.
While Alabama (-320) and Miami (+152) are far from sure things for the Playoff, their national championship odds at @FDSportsbook are STILL ahead of Oklahoma's, which is a helluva commentary on the Sooners. https://t.co/Oa3pDUVLre pic.twitter.com/AEIVgzZnzK
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 7, 2025
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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