Colorado vs Arizona State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sun Devils Expose Buffs' Defense

Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes will look to get back in the win column when they head to Tempe to face the Arizona State Sun Devils tonight.

Looking at college football odds, Colorado is expected to come away victorious in a tight contest as a slight road favorite.

All eyes have been on Coach Prime and his team this season, although it feels like the hype has diminished following back-to-bac losses. Does that mean he has another surprise in store for the country when it least expects it, or is it a result of expectations being normalized?

Read on as I dish out my best bet and free college football picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Arizona State on October 7. 

Colorado vs Arizona State best odds

Colorado vs Arizona State picks and predictions

Colorado gets a bit of reprieve this week after being three-touchdown underdogs two weeks in a row against the Pac-12’s powerhouses. Still, a trip to Tempe is hardly ever a cakewalk, no matter how down the Sun Devils are, so this figured to be a hard-fought battle between two teams that could use a win.  

The Buffs started the year in startling 3-0 fashion but have since dropped two straight. After getting blown out 42-6 by Oregon in Week 4, it looked like they were headed for another ugly defeat last week when they trailed the USC Trojans 48-21 in the second half. They finished that game on a high note, however, pulling within one score by the time of the final whistle in a 48-41 loss.

Coach Prime said that his team is about to hit another level offensively, which could be a scary thought considering his son, Shedeur Sanders, is putting up video game-esque numbers for a unit averaging 34.2 PPG and 440 total yards per game. While that could just be Deion talking overconfidently, it likely also has to do with the fact that a dormant rushing attack came to life last week with 193 rushing yards against the Trojans — more than the output of the previous three weeks combined. Offensive coordinator Sean Lewis does like to have a steady ground game to complement a lethal aerial attack, so perhaps that’s the new gear that Coach Prime was referencing. 

The Buffs should have a slight advantage when they have the ball. Although Arizona State’s defense has been better than anticipated by many heading into the year, it still checks in at 65th in EPA per play and 86th in success rate. Both figures rank behind a Colorado offense checking in at 44th in EPA per play and 53rd in success rate. 

Arizona State’s offense was terrible to begin the season but has since come to life a bit over the last two weeks. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the timeframe of improvement matches up with when head coach Kenny Dillingham took over calling the shots offensively. 

A week ago, the Sun Devils notched season-highs in passing yards (362), total yards (430), and yards per play (6.0) against the California Golden Bears. Quarterback Trenton Bourguet looked comfortable under center and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt while completing 26 of his 41 attempts, and he has tackle-breaking machine Cameron Skattebo at running back and star player Elijah Badger to target at receiving. 

The Sun Devils should also have a slight advantage when they have the ball, ranking 105th in EPA per play on offense while the Buffs check in at 124th EPA per play on defense. 

This isn’t a fantastic scheduling spot for Colorado, who just played two very tough teams and now has to hit the road in what will still be a difficult environment, and it’ll be without its best player. 

I can’t justify laying points in what forecasts as a close matchup. Colorado has a -0.7 yards per play margin while benefitting a +7 turnover differential, while Arizona State has a -0.2 yards per play margin and is -12 in turnover differential. It has been the more efficient team and has had worse luck, and it will be playing at home for this contest. Colorado’s offense is the best unit on the field but Arizona State’s defense is the second-best, and its offense may be the third-best. 

The numbers point me in Arizona State’s direction and that’s where I’m heading, taking the Sun Devils plus the points. 

My best bet: Arizona State +4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Colorado vs Arizona State same-game parlay

Arizona State +4.5 -110

Arizona State first-half moneyline +124

Over 60.5 -110

25% boost available

+415 +519 at DraftKings

This is a three-leg SGP centered around my best bet on Arizona State against the spread. The first play that I’ll add will be Arizona State’s first-half moneyline at +124. I think there’s value in this prop as Colorado is coming off two tough games and will be playing on the road against a Sun Devils team playing its best ball of the season. Granted, that isn’t saying much as they still lost to Cal last week, but won the yards per play differential by +1.8 a week after gaining just one less first down than USC. Those may qualify as moral victories, but I think they’re moreso signs of improvement. 

The last leg will be the full game total Over 60.5. Colorado’s offense will be able to score points against a solid but unspectacular Sun Devils defense. This is an ultra-aggressive defense under Brian Ward that likes to send the house while trusting its corners in single coverage. That’s mostly worked so far this season but will definitely be tested by Sanders and this potent passing attack. On the other side of things, the Buffs have been a total mess on defense and I don’t trust them to keep anyone off the scoreboard. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis

The line got as high as Colorado -7 on Sunday but has since come in a bit, currently sitting at between -4 and -4.5. There’s expected to be some scoring in this game as the total sits at 60.5 across the board as of the time of this writing. 

There’s a lot of news to follow on the injury front for both sides. 

Two-way star Travis Hunter remains out, although the secondary is otherwise returning to health with the expected return of Shilo Sanders and the potential reinstatement of Myles Slusher in the lineup. Starting right tackle Savion Washington will be out this week. 

Arizona State has been bitten by the injury bug this season. It was without linebacker Travion Brown and defensive back Jordan Clark last week against Cal. Brown remains out this week, which is concerning for a team with very suspect depth at linebacker, while Clark is considered questionable. Quarterbacks Jaden Rashada and Drew Pyne remain on the shelf, as will three starting offensive linemen. Even Punter Josh Carlson is banged up with a foot injury and won’t play this Saturday. 

I played Arizona State against the spread and included the Over in the SGP listed above, which tells you which side I prefer for both bets. 

Colorado vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Arizona State is 2-0 ATS since Dillingham took control of the offense. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs Arizona State.

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