We are all too often too guilty of laughing at the downfalls in a college football season, more than praising the surprises.
For every joke about a shortened runway in Happy Valley and every eyeroll at Louisiana politics, we should be spending more time applauding the rises in College Station, Lubbock, and Provo, the distinct possibility of Sean Lewis reaching the College Football Playoff, and the surprise that is Tony Elliott’s sudden job security.
On a weekend that looks light to the casual viewer because of the follies at Penn State, Florida State, and LSU, there are still nine games this weekend with single-digit spreads that have genuine Playoff implications.
This is the joy of the 12-team Playoff. Moments like Tulane vs. Memphis, Wake Forest vs. Virginia, and San Diego State vs. Hawaii all carry impacts on the biggest picture of the sport.
College football Week 11 preview and betting news
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- Texas A&M vs. Missouri
- Bonus Bet No. 2
Genuine Playoff Implications
The nine games with spreads within 10 points with possible Playoff consequences …
- Tulane at Memphis on Friday night: The winner of the American Conference is the most likely Group of Five entrant into the Playoff, and the winner of this game will be the frontrunner to be that champion.
- Georgia at Mississippi State: The Fighting Cowbells have improved enough this year to keep this spread in single digits, but they have not improved enough that Kirby Smart could explain away a loss.
- BYU at Texas Tech: The loser of this game will fall out of the Playoff field until further notice.
- Texas A&M at Missouri: The unbeaten Aggies have two distinct regular-season tests remaining, at Missouri and at Texas. Win one of those, and Texas A&M should be locked into the Playoff.
- Oregon at Iowa: Favored by 6.5 points, are the Ducks good, or have they enjoyed a relatively easy schedule? Could the same things be asked about the Hawkeyes?
- Auburn at Vanderbilt: Diego Pavia may not get a chance to beat Hugh Freeze for a third time, but Pavia does need to keep winning to keep Vanderbilt a legitimate Playoff contender. Favored by just 6.5 at home against a team fresh off firing its problematic head coach, the world does not yet genuinely believe in the Commodores as Playoff contenders.
- Wake Forest at Virginia: The ACC needs Virginia to finish the regular season 11-1 to have a chance at two entries into the Playoff.
- LSU at Alabama: The Tide would still be in the Playoff field with a loss to LSU, but their margin for error would be eliminated.
- San Diego State at Hawaii: If the top of the American beats up on itself, then the 7-1 Aztecs could start to think about slipping into the Playoff, but only if they can finish 12-1 with a Mountain West title.
Georgia vs. Mississippi State
This would be an albatross around the SEC for the Playoff, though Greg Sankey would then insist on using a Mississippi State Bulldogs win as proof that the SEC is the best conference from top to bottom.
There is an instinctive want to cheer for the cowbells to pull off this upset as 9.5-point underdogs, but the short-term chaos could come at a greater cost, a worry that argues for cheering for the Georgia Bulldogs.
If the SEC loses a Playoff team this year because Mississippi State has found decency, then the SEC’s insistence on more guaranteed berths in the next Playoff format could become ironclad.
As things currently stand, it is likely the 12-team format will be extended for another year, into 2026. Logically, the longer the 12-team format persists, the less likely it is that the field expands, certainly the less likely it is that the field expands past 16 teams.
These are good things.
But an SEC dud at the expense of its most recent champion would give the conference monolith greater insecurities that need to be coddled.
It may be best for us all to hope the SEC eases forward for now.
Bonus Bet No. 1
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have surprised this year by outright winning two of their first five games in the ACC, also going 3-2 against the spread in conference play thus far.
The Demon Deacons are a win away from bowl eligibility in Jake Dickert’s first season as head coach, a testimony to how quickly he has implemented his system in a complete change from Dave Clawson’s slow-mesh offense.
Wake Forest is nowhere near Playoff viability, but before the 12-team Playoff era, the Deacons’ trip to Charlottesville would warrant no greater wonder.
Nowadays, though, the 6.5-point underdogs could dash the Virginia Cavaliers' Playoff hopes, which are very much alive right now despite ranking No. 14 in the initial Playoff selection committee’s rankings.
An upset would most likely be authored by Wake’s defense, not Dickert’s offense. Even as the Deacons have picked up a couple of ACC victories, their offense has been more of a problem than an asset.
Against Power Four opponents, Wake Forest’s offense has been measurably productive in just one of five games, against Virginia Tech’s utterly lost season.
The Demon Deacons’ defense, however, was an outright boost in both conference wins, against the Hokies and against SMU.
And as Virginia has looked increasingly vulnerable — three of its last four wins coming by one possession, repeatedly snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, outright lucky to beat both Washington State and North Carolina — the offense has become the anchor, a negative aspect in three of those four games.
Thus, the Under has cashed in three of the Cavaliers’ last four games, the exception being merely a push.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Wake Forest vs. Virginia Under 48.5 (-112 at DraftKings)🏈
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
As of Friday midday, every notable Playoff contender has odds listed at FanDuel in the “To Make the Playoff” market except Ohio State.
If the Texas A&M Aggies beat the Missouri Tigers, expect the Aggies to also come off that market. Sure, their current listing of -6000 is rather cost-prohibitive, anyway, but it will still be of note when Texas A&M is pulled entirely.
With only South Carolina, Samford, and Texas remaining after this weekend, an Aggies win in Columbia should assure them nothing worse than an 11-1 regular-season finish and an appearance in the SEC title game.
Missouri is good, but these realities should make Texas A&M more than a 6.5-point road favorite.
Bonus Bet No. 2
At the risk of forfeiting my claim to care about all 136 teams at the FBS level equally, this column is about to take a darker turn than already seen by advocating for a Georgia win against Mike Leach’s stumbling program.
This column is about to argue for a boring Hawaii Test late Saturday night.
Forgive me, friends, I know what I do.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors throw the ball more often than anyone else in the country by as much of a gap as is between No. 2 in passing rate over expected and No. 25, per CFB-graphs.com. Against the San Diego State Aztecs, that should be a failing strategy.
Which is a bit absurd, Sean Lewis putting together a possible Playoff contender thanks more to its defense than its offense. But this is indeed the No. 2 defense in the country in passing success rate against, and it is No. 14 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
San Diego State is a defense-first program right now, an ethos Lewis turned to when it was clear his offensive system was not going to mesh in his second year post-Colorado. The Aztecs run the ball 10th-most in the country, another testimony to this surprise.
Arguing for the Under in Saturday’s final kickoff may not be a thought that lights social media on fire, but it is one that should be profitable after you go to sleep.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: San Diego State vs. Hawaii Under 48.5 (-110 at FanDuel)🏈
Use Saturday night’s expected quiet end to your advantage and have a second old-fashioned tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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