There are more games involving an FBS team this weekend than any other in college football history. Literally. It is a great way to start what will be the longest college football season in history.
But while there may be 96 total games this weekend, including the ones from Thursday and Friday nights, there are only 37 games featuring FBS vs. FBS teams, with just 31 on Saturday. When it is framed that way, your instinct may be to bet on the vast majority of them. Think twice about that.
But one, real quick, to be sure to key in on is the preseason Mountain West favorite’s trip to the Southeast. No, the Boise State Broncos should not have much relative trouble with the Georgia Southern Eagles, hence being favored by 12.5 or 13, depending on your sportsbook.
However, this game could inform some of the College Football National Championship odds race. And that is the glorious part of the 2024 season and the expanded 12-team Playoff. Boise State at Georgia Southern may impact it.
Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson surprised the world when he named Maddux Madsen the starting quarterback over USC transfer Malachi Nelson. On the surface, this suggests a more conservative offensive approach than ideal, one leaning on star running back Ashton Jeanty and four returning starters along the offensive line. That fits with what Boise State did last season, and it should work against Georgia Southern.
But it would also represent a lower ceiling for the Broncos in a year when they should have genuine Playoff aspirations. Falling short of this total of 57.5 will represent more than just a slow game in Statesboro. It will also strengthen an argument against expecting Boise State to be the first automatic Group of Five teams that makes it into the College Football Playoff.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Boise State at Georgia Southern Under 57.5 (-115 at FanDuel) 🏈
College football betting news for Week 1
- Doubt Week 1 Line Movement
- Don't Doubt Transfer QBs
- You Might Not Be Able to Bet On Those QBs
- Links For Your Friday Night Cram Session
- Don't Be That Guy
- Recognize EA Sports is about Marketing
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Doubt Week 1 Line Movement
To each their own. Some of us spend our summers on a boat, some try to regain fitness by biking hundreds of miles at a time. Bar patios seem to be very popular when the sun is out.
Others study college football spreads in June. They place their bets in July. By August, those devoted sharps have done all their Week 1 work.
And these lines reflect that. They are the most hardened lines we will see all season, at least until the 12-team Playoff field becomes a reality. Do not see line movement this week and think there is something afoot.
No, that is simply the boaters, the cyclists the bar flies placing their bets in volume. The loudest example of that was the Colorado spread moving from -8.5 to as high as -11.5 in the last week for no reason whatsoever. Obviously, North Dakota State covered all numbers in that five-point loss on Thursday, but the line move was still inarguably misguided.
North Dakota State covers the spread 🔥
— Covers (@Covers) August 30, 2024
Despite Deion Sanders' best efforts 😅 https://t.co/sb9jCHYazJ pic.twitter.com/DkZyhslfyj
In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, 61 FBS vs. FBS lines made notable moves the week of Week 0 and Week 1, excluding teams playing their second such game in Week 1. Notable in this instance, meaning moving multiple points or crossing a key number.
Three of those moves perfectly encapsulated the final score. For example, moving from -7.5 to -6.5 in a game that ended up with the favorite winning by a touchdown.
Of the other 58, 33 moved opposite the final result, 56.9%.
Do not outright fade line movement this week, either. Just don’t trust it at all. This is the latest money, months late, showing up too close to kick. Prioritizing the boat, the bike, or the cocktail in the summer is entirely acceptable, but it is done best in tandem with prudence while betting on Week 1.
Don’t Doubt Transfer QBs
Of the 68 Power Four teams (including Notre Dame), 43 of them are expected to start transfer quarterbacks this week. If your instinct is to doubt transfer quarterbacks — be it because you despise immediate eligibility upon transferring, be it because you think a quarterback needs to earn the loyalty of his locker room before he can star, be it because you simply don’t like forgetting who plays where — you will run out of teams to trust.
Look at the Top 10 teams in the AP Top 25, an inconsequential poll chosen here simply for some context. Four of them are starting transfer quarterbacks.
Look at yours truly’s predicted bracket for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Four of those 12 teams are starting transfer quarterbacks.
One last time before the season really gets going.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 30, 2024
My predicted bracket for the first 12-team College Football Playoff. pic.twitter.com/YU1iIlgtpH
If your instinct is to doubt transfer quarterbacks, you will have just about no one else to trust this season.
You Might Not Be Able To Bet On Those QBs
And that’s okay.
The NCAA spent some time this summer pushing back against gambling on player props. Some states listened. Maryland, Ohio, Vermont, and Louisiana all banned bets on player props.
You might be frustrated. Chances at betting value are being taken away from you.
Remember why it is and learn from others’ mistakes. Too many people see a bet lose and go find the player on social media in order to complain. All that accomplishes is harassing an 18- to 23-year-old. No one feels better from it. Everyone feels worse.
If losing a bet makes you consider that, then maybe evaluate how much you are betting and why you do so. The idea is to add intrigue to a game with a strong chance at finding value. The idea is not to get angry or worry about paying your bar tab.
Links for Your Friday Night Cram Session
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The Triple Option, Andrew Caley’s three best bets this weekend.
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Douglas Farmer’s best bets this weekend, including looks at Michigan and Texas.
Don’t Be That Guy
You won a dynasty on “College Football 25.” We are all very happy for you.
You do not know how to call plays better than your favorite team’s offensive coordinator.
The thing about these coaches, they have effectively spent as much time studying football as a doctor spends in undergrad, medical school, residency, and internship to get where they are today. (That’s the order of that, right? I never watched “Grey’s Anatomy.”)
Many of these coaches might have stultified their own social development because they spent so much time studying film, scheming up new ideas, and devoting their lives to this sport. To be clear, that is neither a compliment nor an insult, simply a reality.
Your successful video game dynasty does not put you on their level.
Tonight we begin, in earnest, the first college football season since the return of the video game.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 29, 2024
Hey you, you on your couch, don't be that guy.
Your dynasty does not prove you know better than your favorite team's offensive coordinator. It doesn't. pic.twitter.com/bQIdlxbbOE
Recognize EA Sports Is about Marketing
That’s what this is. It’s marketing.
It is not gambling advice. It is not an on-field reality. It is marketing.
Do not, for a moment, take anything you see about a video game and think it should impact your Playoff bets.
Oregon is the third favorite to win the Natty at +700.
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) August 30, 2024
Miami has the longest odds of these five teams at +5,000.
Anything stand out to you about these CF25 sims? https://t.co/HcWGnGHXvJ
Lastly, Enjoy It
We wait nine months a year to get these dozen-plus Saturdays. While this will be the longest college football season ever, including an additional idle week for every team simply because of a quirk in the calendar, we are looking at only four additional games in total, the on-campus first-round games of the Playoff.
We still have just 14 full-fledged Saturdays of this joy, plus conference championship week.
Enjoy them. Make friends on the barstool next to you. They have a favorite team, too, ya know. And even if it is your rival, your hatred of UTEP and their hatred of New Mexico State — only 45 miles apart — is something you have in common.
Now, if that is a Ball State fan, buy them a drink. They are bored this weekend, the only FBS team to not play in Week 1. Blame Army and the AAC.
Covers 134 Tuesday recap + Saturday sneak peek
Big Game Best Bets from Tuesday's show
Assuredly, you have already listened to this week’s episode of “College Football 134,” the Covers podcast delving into every layer of this college football season. Right? Wait, you haven’t?
Fix that.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here ⚡️
Now Get Up Early Tomorrow
Not that early, just 9 a.m. ET. Because Andrew Caley and I will be live on YouTube to preview all of Saturday’s action. “College Football 134” operates best on little sleep.
https://youtube.com/live/hHphWlgPY1s?feature=share
Check out the Covers 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET
Not intended for use in MA.
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