California vs UCLA Odds, Picks, and Predictions: D-Lightful Bruins

Justin Wilcox’s California Golden Bears  aim for a win to reach bowl eligibility as they head to the Rose Bowl tonight to face Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins (7-4

It was rumored that Kelly would be fired following the conclusion of last week’s game, but that didn't materialize — yet, anyway — after the Bruins whupped USC 38-20.

Glancing at the college football odds, the Bruins are -9 at home while the total is set at 52. 

I'll be focusing on the total as UCLA’s elite defensive front gets one more chance to do damage in the regular season. Read on for my best bet and full college football picks and predictions for California vs. UCLA on Saturday, November 25.

California vs UCLA best odds

California vs UCLA picks and predictions

Both the California Golden Bears and UCLA Bruins will look to run the ball plenty in this matchup.

When Cal has the ball, Fernando Mendoza has provided competent play at quarterback by completing 62.2% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns to five interceptions. Jake Spavital’s offense has thrived by handing the ball off to Jadyn Ott, a sophomore running back who has racked up 1,322 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. 

The Bears haven’t been shy about leaning into this rushing attack and it’s been very productive, checking into this matchup ranking seventh in EPA per rush and 14th in rushing explosiveness. The offense line has surprisingly been among the best in the nation, ranking ninth in line yards and 11th in stuff rate. 

It’ll be strength-on-strength in the trenches, however, as UCLA has a nasty defensive front that ranks third in stuff rate, first in power success rate, fifth in front seven havoc, and ninth in line yards. There’s no other way to slice it — those are absolutely elite numbers. 

First-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has been a revelation and his unit thrives off stopping the run, checking in at fourth in EPA per rush and fifth in rushing explosiveness. It’ll be difficult for Cal to implement its run-first RPO offense. Good luck establishing the run against game wrecker Laiatu Latu (20.5 TFL, 13 sacks), Darius Muasau (8 TFL, 4 sacks), and the Murphy twins (combined 19.5 TFL, 10 sacks). 

For as good as Cal’s line has been in run blocking, it ranks outside the top 100 in pass blocking per PFF’s metrics. Advantage UCLA. 

When the Bruins have the ball, Ethan Garbers is likely to earn another start after leading his team to victory over the rival USC Trojans a week ago. It’ll be weakness-on-weakness for the Bruins as their struggling offense (79th in success rate) looks to find room against the turnstile that has been the Bears defense (121st in success rate). 

Running back TJ Harden stole the show against USC with 22 rushes for 142 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for 16 yards and another score. While those numbers come with the caveat that it was against the Trojans’ woeful defense, it’s not like Cal’s stop unit has been any better. It has allowed 50 or more points in four separate matchups this season and has been well below Power 5 caliber at all three levels. UCLA's offense isn’t good enough to expect an offensive explosion, but it really wants to control the ball and keep the clock moving, a game plan that it should be able to execute.

I think this is a nightmare matchup for Cal. For the Bears’ offense to work, it needs to be able to run the ball. It’s looked mostly great this year because it has been able to move the ball. It’s also looked terrible against the three toughest run defenses it has faced, averaging 14.3 PPG in games against Auburn, Utah, and Oregon. UCLA has one of the most fearsome defensive fronts in the nation and will be able to render Cal’s offensive game plan moot. 

As for UCLA, its offense has mostly looked pretty bad other than in matchups where it can run the ball consistently. Cal hasn’t been able to stop the run all year and checks in at 116th in rushing success rate while surrendering 22 rushing touchdowns, so Chip Kelly’s offense should be able to keep the chains moving.

The Bruins have been dead set on the Under at 2-9 O/U this season. They should be able to move the chains and keep the clock ticking in this matchup while sitting on the ball and suffocating Cal’s RPO attack when the Bears are on offense. The Bruins scored 38 points last week, sure, but it benefitted from three turnovers including one defensive touchdown while mustering 4.7 yards per play against a terrible USC defense. 

Give me one more Under for UCLA. 

My best bet: Under 52 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

California vs UCLA same-game parlay

Under 52.5 points

UCLA -9

+264 at DraftKings

Here’s a two-legger SGP with my best bet on the Under coupled with UCLA against the spread. 

While there may not be as much separating these two teams as the opening line of -10.5 indicates, the nightmare matchup for Cal makes this a spot where I can only lean with the favorite. The number has correctly come in a bit and has crossed a key number, and now it’s fair game. 

UCLA is dominant defensively and below average offensively. Cal, on the other hand, is dreadful defensively and is simply alright offensively. These two makeups are not alike, and UCLA is coming off a strong showing against its rival and has not quit on Chip Kelly. 

Cal has been headed in the wrong direction for a while now under Justin Wilcox. He’s supposed to be a defensive-minded head coach, but the Bears have been among the country’s worst from a success-rate standpoint (and many other standpoints as well) for two straight years. The Spavital hire was a good one, but it’ll be hard to show signs of life against this disruptive Bruins front seven. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

California vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis

Both teams are 5-6 ATS this season and have not been particularly adept at covering spreads. 

Cal has been on a bit of a roll lately, however, covering three of their last four games. I’ll point out that two of those games came as favorites against downtrodden teams (Stanford, Washington State), one was against a nosediving USC team devoid of a defense, and the lone non-cover was a 63-19 defeat to Oregon. 

UCLA has covered just once in its last four games. There’s some context needed there, however, as the team has been dealing with quarterback injuries and will be glad to have Garbers under center after being forced to play third-stringer Collin Schlee at points recently. The Bruins probably had no right being favored over Arizona, fell flat against Arizona State with Schlee under center, and only failed to cover against Colorado due to a garbage time touchdown. 

Going back to the total, one added bonus for the Over is that these two teams have combined for seven straight Unders when playing at the Rose Bowl. 

California vs UCLA betting trend to know

These teams are 1-9 O/U across the last 10 meetings with each other. Find more college football betting trends for California vs UCLA.

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