There’s a College Football Playoff bid and Big 12 Championship on the line as the BYU Cougars face the Texas Tech Red Raiders at AT&T Stadium.
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders can likely secure a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win, and they’ll rely on their potent defense to conquer the Cougars for a second time this year.
See why I’m backing the Red Raiders with my BYU vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
BYU vs Texas Tech predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early BYU vs Texas Tech spread pick: Texas Tech -13.5
One of the surest bets in college football this season has been that the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ defense will show up and bring its A-game. They’ve positively suffocated opponents, allowing just 11.2 ppg while leading the nation in success rate.
They limited the BYU Cougars in the first matchup in early November, keeping true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier from crossing midfield in either the first or third quarters. This offense works best when Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin can ground and pound (194.5 rushing yards per game as a team), but it’s a terrible matchup against Tech’s defense (68.9 rushing yards per game allowed).
Given the lack of offensive output we can expect from BYU, the Red Raiders only need several touchdowns to get into range of covering this spread. They’ve racked up 42+ points in four of their last five games and now have a healthier version of quarterback Behren Morton than they did in the initial matchup, so the offense is no slouch.
Tech is 10-2 ATS this season and has proven its worth in a 34-10 win over Utah on the road and a 29-7 victory in the first meeting with BYU.
Early BYU vs Texas Tech total pick: Under 50.5
BYU prides itself on having an effective offensive line. That’s a big boost in most matchups, but hardly against a dominant Tech defensive line featuring future first-round NFL draft pick David Bailey (16 TFL), disruptive Romello Height (8.5 sacks), and difference-making defensive tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. (combined 16 TFL).
BYU will be hard-pressed to generate consistent offense, so the Cougars will likely slow the game down and hope that Jay Hill and the defense can flummox Tech on the other side of the ball. This is generally a methodical offense (109th in tempo), and that shouldn’t change in the title game.
The Cougars check in at 27th in EPA per play on defense, so they aren’t at a big analytical disadvantage from the Red Raiders’ offense (24th). They’ve limited three of their last four opponents to 5.2 yards per play or below, and this isn’t some sort of pushover unit.
BYU has trended toward the Under when away from home, cashing tickets in five of its last seven away games. Here’s betting on another Under outside of Provo, this time at a neutral site against one of the nation’s nastiest defenses.
BYU vs Texas Tech odds
- BYU vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -13.5
- BYU vs. Texas Tech moneyline: BYU +400, Texas Tech -550
- BYU vs. Texas Tech Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch BYU vs Texas Tech
- BYU vs. Texas Tech matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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