The No. 12 BYU Cougars visit the hostile environment of Autzen Stadium when they clash with the No. 25 Oregon Ducks on Saturday afternoon in Eugene.
BYU is coming off a 26-20 double-overtime win at home against the then-No. 9 Baylor Bears, while Oregon rebounded from a 49-3 loss to No. 1 Georgia in Week 1 by pummeling FCS school Eastern Washington 70-14.
The Ducks regained their confidence on offense in Week 2 and get a second straight week at home, where they have won 20 straight games.
BYU is a 3.5-point road underdog in Saturday’s Top-25 matchup. Below are our best college football picks and predictions for the Week 3 showdown between BYU and Oregon.
BYU vs Oregon best odds
BYU vs Oregon picks and predictions
In last Saturday’s win over Baylor, BYU was able to overcome the absences of top receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, who are both listed as questionable for Week 3.
Nacua made an appearance in Week 1’s victory over South Florida and recorded 102 yards from scrimmage on four touches plus a pair of rushing scores in the 50-21 win. He exited the game after his third rushing attempt and did not return as a precaution due to an ankle injury.
Without Nacua or Romney in the lineup in Week 2, BYU’s offense sputtered, particularly in the run game. Baylor held the Cougars to 83 rushing yards on 33 carries, with lead back Christopher Brooks accounting for just 31 yards on 13 attempts after he ran for 135 yards on the same number of attempts the week prior.
Ultimately, it was a three-yard run by senior running back Lopini Katoa that sealed the deal for BYU in the second overtime period. The Cougars’ other touchdowns in the contest came on 20-yard touchdown passes — one from quarterback Jaren Hall to wideout Chase Roberts in the first half and the other from Roberts to Hall in the second.
Baylor’s defense has been a force against the run, but Oregon had trouble against Georgia’s arsenal of running backs, giving up 132 yards, four touchdowns, and a 5.3 yards per carry average to the Bulldogs.
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett also had a field day, going 25-of-31 for 368 yards and throwing two touchdown passes against the Ducks in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game.
The BYU offense is a step below Georgia’s, but the Cougars' defense should be able to cause problems for Oregon and new quarterback Bo Nix, who tossed two interceptions and averaged 4.7 yards per pass against Georgia.
Nix, who transferred from Auburn, had a much better outing against Eastern Washington, as he tallied 277 yards and five touchdowns on 28 of 33 passing, but he’ll come back down to earth against Top-25 competition.
Both teams will hunker down on defense early, as the offenses try to establish something from the run game. BYU managed just 10 points in the first half against Baylor, and Oregon’s only points against Georgia came on a field goal in the second quarter.
Look for a low-scoring start for both teams in this marquee matchup before they begin to figure each other out in the second half.
My best bet: First-half Under 29.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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BYU vs Oregon betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
BYU is 2-0 against the spread this season in Kalani Sitake’s seventh year as head coach, but the Cougars are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games as a road underdog.
Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest atmospheres in college football, and BYU would be making a massive statement if they topple the Ducks in Eugene, even if Oregon has been less than stellar to start Dan Lanning’s tenure.
BYU was undefeated against the Pac-12 in 2021 with victories over Arizona, Washington State, USC, and ranked Utah and Arizona State teams, but only Washington State and USC were true road contests, and those matchups resulted in close two- and four-point decisions, respectively.
With Nacua and Romney questionable, BYU’s back is against the wall, and the offense may find it tough to keep up with Oregon once the Ducks begin to chip away at the Cougars' defense.
Oregon will also come in with some added motivation, as they reunite with former 5-star offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia, who transferred to BYU in November.
Since 1995, the Ducks are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS when favored at home by fewer than four points, but they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, while the head-to-head series is tied 3-3, with BYU getting the most recent victory back in 2006 in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Over/Under analysis
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Oregon’s offense after two polar opposite outings between Week 1 and Week 2.
The Ducks should look much better than they did against Georgia’s top-ranked defense, but Nix is not going to repeat the magic from his career day against Eastern Washington.
The senior must take care of the ball to keep Oregon in the game, while the Cougars need more production from their rushing attack with their star wideouts sidelined.
BYU’s defense also let Baylor go 9 of 18 on third down while the Cougars' offense converted on just three of 14 third-down tries. Two false start penalties – out of a total of 14 penalties for the evening — derailed Baylor late in the game, but Oregon is a more disciplined team.
By the second half, the Ducks will likely find their footing and punch in a few scores, forcing BYU to the air.
The total opened at 57 at the majority of sportsbooks and shifted a point to 58 at PointsBet and Caesars. The Over is 4-1 in the last five games in which Oregon was favored, while the Over is 5-2 in BYU’s last seven games overall.
BYU vs Oregon game info
• Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
BYU vs Oregon key injuries
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BYU vs Oregon weather
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BYU vs Oregon betting trend to know
BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for BYU vs. Oregon.
