BYU blew past its 6.5 win total in 2025, finishing 11-2 in one of the biggest overachievements in this dataset.
Oddsmakers took notice, pushing the Cougars' 2026 win total all the way up to 8.5, and even at that higher number, the market still leans toward another Over.
Here's a look at the recent history of BYU win totals, along with predictions on whether the Cougars will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
BYU 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
BYU is 23-4 the last two years and this year’s team could be even better. My ratings only project them to be underdogs in two games (vs Notre Dame and at Utah). I think they make a run at the playoffs.
Rob Paul
Kalani Sitake spurned Penn State to return to BYU, and he’s positioned to win double-digit games for the third straight season in Provo.
The Cougars’ schedule ranks outside the top 50 in SOS (.544), and they’re top 20 nationally in returning production (64%). And while the offense returns significantly less than the defense, both QB Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, last year’s Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, are back. Sitake also added two major transfers in offensive lineman Paki Finau (Washington) and tight end Walker Lyons (USC).
However, the defense is the bigger reason BYU could potentially win the conference, especially with the addition of transfer Cade Uluave (Cal). The unit is No. 6 in returning production (69%) with All-Big 12 talent at every level, including Evan Johnson, Faletau Satuala, and Isaiah Glasker.
Colby Marchio
If the Cougars are able to take down either Notre Dame or Utah, nine wins feels very doable. BYU should easily be back in the Big 12 Championship conversation, and with sophomore Bear Bachmeier coming off an impressive freshman season, this offense should only continue to improve.
On the defensive side of the ball, they have a new coordinator in Kelly Poppinga, who has been with the program since 2022. With his familiarity with the team and the culture, I do not expect any major speed bumps as he transitions into the role of defensive play caller.
BYU win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(BYU historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5 | -145 | +120 | 11 | Over |
| 2024 | 4.5 | +100 | -120 | 10 | Over |
| 2023 | 5.5 | +125 | -150 | 5 | Under |
| 2022 | 8.5 | +100 | -120 | 7 | Under |
| 2021 | 7 | -115 | -105 | 10 | Over |
| 2019 | 6.5 | -110 | -110 | 7 | Over |
| 2018 | 5.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Over |
| 2017 | 9 | -160 | +140 | 4 | Under |
| 2016 | 7 | -160 | +140 | 8 | Over |
| 2014 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | 8 | Under |
| 2012 | 8 | -180 | +140 | 7 | Under |
| 2010 | 8 | -125 | -105 | 6 | Under |
| 2009 | 9 | -115 | -115 | 10 | Over |
| 2008 | 9 | N/A | N/A | 10 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- An Over-friendly history: BYU has gone Over its win total eight times against six Unders across 14 graded seasons, one of the more Over-friendly records in the conference.
- Early struggles: BYU missed its win total in three straight graded seasons from 2010-14, coming up short by an average of 1 1/2 wins per year in that span.
- Back-to-back Overs to close it out: BYU has now cleared its win total in consecutive seasons (2024, 2025), bouncing back strong after back-to-back Unders in 2022 and 2023.
How BYU win totals are priced
BYU's 11-win 2025 season demolished its 6.5 win total by four and a half games, one of the widest overs in this dataset. For 2026, oddsmakers responded by pushing the number all the way up to 8.5, and even at that much higher total, the market still leans toward the Over, favored at -136 against +115 on the Under.
The conference total sits at 6.5 and is priced as a true pick'em, with both the Over and Under at -110, suggesting books see this as a genuine coin-flip season in Big 12 play despite the bullish overall outlook.
BYU has faced a win total of exactly nine three times since 2008, and the Cougars have gone Over that number twice against just one Under.
BYU win total FAQs
Will BYU make the CFP?
BYU is priced at +330 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is BYU's projected win total?
The Cougars' win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at -150 and the Under at +125.
Who is BYU's starting QB?
Bear Bachmeier has the BYU starting quarterback role entering August. He threw for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns a season ago.
What's the best bet for BYU this season?
Based on our expert consensus, BYU is one of the strongest OVER plays of any team in the country.
