Cincinnati halted a two-year Under skid in 2025, going 7-5 to clear its 6.5 win total.
Oddsmakers weren't fully convinced it would carry over, though, dropping the Bearcats' 2026 win total down a full win to 5.5, with the Under now favored at that lower number.
Here's a look at the recent history of Cincinnati win totals, along with predictions on whether the Bearcats will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 5.5:
Cincinnati 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 5.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 5.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 5.5 | 🟡 |
| Scott Springer | Cincinnati Enquirer | OVER 5.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Head coach Scott Satterfield is on the hot seat after a 15-22 record the last three years. The Bearcats only return five starters. There could be a stretch from Week 4 to Week 10 where they are an underdog in six straight games.
Rob Paul
If Scott Satterfield is going to get Cincinnati bowl-eligible, he desperately needs his transfer portal additions to hit, especially at QB. Last year, Brendan Sorsby was one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country, and Satterfield’s program still lost five straight to end the season. This year, Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV is expected to take over under center.
French was a fine QB in the Sun Belt, but in the Big 12 for a team with the 17th-hardest SOS schedule (.595), it could be a long season. He’s not the only non-Power 4 transfer Cinci needs a big year out of either, with a half dozen of their projected starters coming from the FCS or MAC. Satterfield’s seat could be scorching by mid-season.
Colby Marchio
I think the Bearcats may have the toughest Big 12 schedule in the conference this season, as they take on nearly every top contender. They travel to Arizona and West Virginia, host Texas Tech and Utah, head to Houston, and finish the year at BYU.
I do not see this team getting over five wins this season.
The team did return a lot of key pieces, which should help, but there are simply better teams in this conference, and that schedule is enough to completely turn me off. Give me the under.
📰 Cincinnati media win total predictions
Scott Springer, Cincinnati Enquirer
The Bearcats have had great starts the past two seasons (5-2 and 7-1 last year) only to fold late losing their final five games. While last year’s team made it to a bowl, they were ranked as high as No. 17 going into November, but now have gone 0-for November the the last two seasons.
They have continually added “diamonds in the rough” out of the transfer portal, but they need to finish stronger to get the confidence rating any higher. Making things difficult is that three of their four November games come on the road. They also play all four Big 12 teams that are ranked in the Preseason Top 25: Texas Tech (12), BYU (14), Utah (21) and Houston (23).
To reach over 5.5 wins, they’ll need another good start.
Cincinnati win totals, odds and results (2019-25)
(Cincinnati historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5 | +120 | -145 | 7 | Over |
| 2024 | 5.5 | -105 | -115 | 5 | Under |
| 2023 | 5 | +105 | -125 | 3 | Under |
| 2022 | 9 | -140 | +115 | 9 | Push |
| 2021 | 10 | -110 | -110 | 12 | Over |
| 2019 | 7.5 | -140 | +120 | 10 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A small sample: Cincinnati has just six graded seasons on record, a far shorter track record than most other programs covered here.
- No streak longer than two seasons: The longest run is two graded seasons in either direction, an Over stretch in 2019 and 2021 and an Under stretch in 2023 and 2024, with each snapped by the next result.
- A bounce-back Over in 2025: Cincinnati snapped its two-season Under skid last year, going 7-5 against a 6.5 win total.
How Cincinnati win totals are priced
Cincinnati's 7-5 finish in 2025 cleared its 6.5 win total, but oddsmakers didn't carry that momentum into 2026, dropping the number a full win to 5.5. The market leans toward the Under at that lower total, favored at -150 against +125 on the Over.
The conference total tells a similar story. Cincinnati's win total sits at 3.5, with the Under favored at -136 against +115 on the Over, one of the more consistently bearish pricing setups in this series, with both the overall and conference numbers leaning the same direction.
Cincinnati's 2022 season is the only push in its win total history, finishing exactly 9-3 against a win total of exactly 9.
Cincinnati win total FAQs
Will Cincinnati make the CFP?
Cincinnati is priced at +5000 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Cincinnati's projected win total?
The Bearcats' win total sits at 5.5 for 2026, with the Over at +125 and the Under at -150.
Who is Cincinnati's starting QB?
JC French IV will take over as the Bearcats' No. 1 quarterback this season. He threw for 2,929 yards and 20 TDs with Georgia Southern last season.
What's the best bet for Cincinnati this season?
Based on our expert consensus, bettors should hammer the UNDER on the Bearcats' season win total.
