Baylor won just five games in 2025, missing its 7.5 win total by two and a half wins in one of the roughest showings of the Dave Aranda era.
Oddsmakers responded by dropping the Bears' 2026 win total to 6.5, but they're still not sold on a bounce-back, pricing the Under as a clear favorite at that number.
Here's a look at the recent history of Baylor win totals, along with predictions on whether the Bears will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5:
Baylor 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟢 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 6.5 | 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Head coach Dave Aranda is on the hot seat with a 36-37 record the last six years. Baylor only returns five starters. My ratings project Baylor to be underdogs in as many as eight games.
Rob Paul
Since its Big 12 Championship season in 2021 under Dave Aranda, Baylor has won more than six games just once.
If the Bears are going to win 7+ games this season, they need Florida transfer DJ Lagway to become the player many expected him to be last season. But that’s a lot to ask of a QB who was top 10 in the Power 4 in turnover-worthy play rate last season (4.5%).
To make matters worse, Baylor ranks No. 102 nationally in returning offensive production (44%) and has the No. 8 SOS (.617). Lagway needs to carry an inexperienced offense against a top-notch schedule, with a defense that was one of the worst in the P4 last year.
For Aranda to win more than six games, Lagway has to be Superman for this offense, and transfer additions on defense like Hosea Wheeler (Indiana) and Daniel Cobbs (Kansas State) need to be All-Big 12 performers.
Colby Marchio
This was a team a lot of people were hyping up last season, and I am still questioning those people, as the Bears finished 5-7 with a 3-6 Big 12 record.
However, in 2026, I think it is worth trusting that this team will be better than last year’s product. If former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway can become the player everyone thought he could be in Gainesville, the Bears could be a dangerous team in Waco.
As a former Lagway Heisman ticket holder, I think it is only right that I believe in him for one more year. Hopefully, with a fresh start, a change of scenery, and the help of Dave Aranda and his staff, they can build him into the player he was expected to become.
The defense has always had the potential to be good under Aranda, but the results have not matched the expectations. Bringing in Joe Klanderman from Kansas State should help turn that unit around.
With the amount of talent this program brought in during the offseason, it is hard for me to lean anywhere near the under. Give me 7+ wins for the Bears.
Baylor win totals, odds and results (2011-25)
(Baylor historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 5 | Under |
| 2024 | 5.5 | -105 | -115 | 8 | Over |
| 2023 | 7 | -120 | +100 | 3 | Under |
| 2022 | 7.5 | -155 | +130 | 6 | Under |
| 2021 | 5.5 | +100 | -120 | 10 | Over |
| 2019 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 11 | Over |
| 2016 | 8.5 | +120 | -140 | 6 | Under |
| 2015 | 10 | -150 | +130 | 9 | Under |
| 2013 | 8 | -105 | -125 | 11 | Over |
| 2011 | 6.5 | +105 | -135 | 9 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- The most balanced record in this series: Baylor has gone Over its win total five times and Under five times across 10 graded seasons, an even split unlike the heavy Under leans seen elsewhere in the conference.
- No long streaks in either direction: The longest run in this dataset is just two graded seasons, a choppier pattern than the extended Under stretches other programs have shown.
- A recent lean toward the Under: Baylor has gone Under in three of its last four graded seasons, coming up well short each time.
How Baylor win totals are priced
Baylor's five-win 2025 season missed its 7.5 win total by two and a half games, one of the wider misses in this dataset. For 2026, oddsmakers brought the number down to 6.5, but the market still isn't convinced a bounce-back is coming, pricing the Under as the favorite at -170 against +140 on the Over.
The conference total sits at 3.5, with the Over favored at -160 against +134 on the Under, suggesting books see the Bears as more likely than not to pick up at least four Big 12 wins even with the modest overall outlook.
The Bears are just 3-9-1 ATS against ranked opponents since the start of the 2022 season.
Baylor win total FAQs
Will Baylor make the CFP?
Baylor is priced at +2500 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Baylor's projected win total?
The Bears' win total sits at 6.5 for 2026, with the Over at +140 and the Under at -170.
Who is Baylor's starting QB?
DJ Lagway will look to bounce back as the QB1 with Baylor. He threw for 2,264 yards and 16 touchdowns but also had 14 interceptions with Florida in 2025.
What's the best bet for Baylor this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER on the Bears' win total is the preferred play (with Colby Marchio the lone holdout).
