Arizona State went 8-4 in 2025 and finished 6-3 in Big 12 play, narrowly missing an 8.5 win total by half a game.
Instead of building on that number, oddsmakers slashed the Sun Devils' 2026 win total all the way down to 6.5, a two-full-win drop that suggests books see real regression coming after last year's near-miss.
Here's a look at the recent history of Arizona State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Sun Devils will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5:
Arizona State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Hod Rabino | Devils Digest (On3) | OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I like head coach Kenny Dillingham but I’m not high on the Sun Devils this year. They only return four starters and have road games at Texas A&M, Texas Tech and BYU plus travel to London in Week 3.
Rob Paul
Kenny Dillingham has raised the floor of this program, and even with a few major losses to the portal, there’s not much reason to doubt Arizona State winning at least seven regular-season games for a third straight year. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley is likely to start at QB, and he brings exciting talent to Marcus Arroyo’s offense. He won’t be short on weapons.
Dillingham went to the transfer portal to refresh his wide receiver room and came away with two NFL-level talents in Omarion Miller (Colorado) and Reed Harris (Boston College). Those two lead a top-30 transfer portal class that also includes key additions on defense in Owen Long (Colorado State), Ashton Stamps (LSU), and Jalen Thompson (Michigan State).
With a schedule outside the top 50 in SOS (.543), ASU could push for eight wins.
Colby Marchio
Is there a more likable coach than Kenny Dillingham? I am a big fan of him, especially after what he did during the 2024 season. However, was that year just lightning in a bottle?
After last season’s letdown 8-5 finish, 2026 is not shaping up to be a return to that 2024 magic. Sam Leavitt left for LSU, Jordyn Tyson is off to the NFL, and now the Sun Devils are facing a tough rebuild.
Even on the defensive side of the ball, they only return one starter from Week 1 of last season. There is simply too much to repair and too many things that need to go right for this team to hit its ceiling.
📰 Arizona State media win total predictions
Hod Rabino, Devils Digest (On3)
Arizona State win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Arizona State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -115 | -105 | 8 | Under |
| 2024 | 4 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2023 | 4.5 | -125 | +105 | 3 | Under |
| 2022 | 6 | +110 | -135 | 3 | Under |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -120 | +100 | 8 | Under |
| 2019 | 6.5 | -150 | +130 | 7 | Over |
| 2018 | 5 | +100 | -120 | 7 | Over |
| 2016 | 6 | -140 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2015 | 7.5 | -155 | +135 | 6 | Under |
| 2014 | 7.5 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2013 | 8 | +100 | -130 | 10 | Over |
| 2009 | 6.5 | -130 | +100 | 4 | Under |
| 2008 | 8.5 | N/A | N/A | 5 | Under |
| 2006 | 8.5 | +135 | -155 | 7 | Under |
| 2005 | 7.5 | +110 | -140 | 6 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A heavy Under lean overall: Arizona State has gone Under its win total 10 times against five Overs across 15 graded seasons, one of the more lopsided Under records in this series.
- A four-season Under streak to open: The Sun Devils missed their win total in four straight graded seasons from 2005 through 2009, missing by 1 1/2 wins or more each time.
- A quiet stretch of late: Arizona State has cleared its win total just once in the last five graded seasons (2024).
How Arizona State win totals are priced
Arizona State's 8-4 finish in 2025 came up just short of its 8.5 win total, and rather than keeping the number high, oddsmakers dropped it two full wins to 6.5 for 2026. That's priced as a true pick'em, with both the Over and Under sitting at -110, signaling books see this as a genuine coin-flip season rather than a clear lean in either direction.
The conference number tells a more confident story. Arizona State's Big 12 win total sits at 4.5, with the Over favored at -136 against +115 on the Under, a total that looks very reachable given the Sun Devils won six conference games in 2025.
As with several other Big 12 programs in this series, books appear more confident in Arizona State's conference floor than in its overall win total.
Arizona State has faced a win total of 8.5 four times since 2005, and the Sun Devils have gone Under every single time, including last season.
Arizona State win total FAQs
Will Arizona State make the CFP?
Arizona State is priced at +1200 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Arizona State's projected win total?
The Sun Devils' win total sits at 6.5 for 2026, with both the Over and Under priced at -110.
Who is Arizona State's starting QB?
Cutter Boley is listed as the Sun Devils' No. 1 option at QB. The Kentucky transfer threw for 2,160 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.
What is the most notable Arizona State win total trend?
The Sun Devils are 1-3 O/U when their preseason win total sits between six and 6.5 (as it does in 2026).
What's the best bet for Arizona State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, bettors should lean toward the UNDER on the Sun Devils' regular season win total.
