Week 12 arrives with college football's pecking order teetering on a knife's edge. Title hopes have been reshuffled by injuries, conference hierarchies are in flux, and the betting markets are reacting in real time.
In a wide ranging conversation with Joe Osborne, Brad Powers boldly identifies which conferences are poised to send just one team to the postseason, how a resurgent Notre Dame complicates everything, and where the value lies on this week's board with his NCAAF picks.
Ohio vs 
Western Michigan best bet
Pick: Western Michigan +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Western Michigan (+1.5) makes Powers' card on a classic handicapping foundation: defense travels, and it also holds value at home. When the number is short and the better stop unit is catching points, the calculus becomes straightforward. In a season where volatility has often come from special teams and explosive plays, the stability of a superior defense can be the difference in coin-flip spreads.
"Western Michigan's got the much better defense," Powers says. "So, you limit points, you're getting points, you're at home. Western Michigan is the pick for me at +1.5."
Toledo vs 
Miami (OH) best bet
Pick: Miami (OH) +3.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
This number aligns with Powers' view of how the market has priced the matchup. In underdog ranges around a field goal, a single turnover swing or red-zone stop can be decisive. Taking a live dog above the key number provides room for a field-goal game while leveraging late-game variance, an edge that compounds in low-possession scripts.
Oklahoma vs 
Alabama best bet
Pick: Oklahoma +7 (-105 at FanDuel)
Oklahoma is the marquee position, with a suggested sprinkle on the moneyline against Alabama. The Sooners' profile, capable on both lines, opportunistic in space, gives them the toolkit to extend drives and force high-leverage downs. In a parity-heavy year, plus a full touchdown against a team that thrives on public support is the exact kind of spot where model edges meet market mispricing.
"Oklahoma +7 is the play," Powers insists. "Sprinkle a little bit on the moneyline here on the Sooners."
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Shifting power dynamics in college football conferences
The balance of power across conferences is tightening, and the ripple effects are unmistakable. The ACC has underwhelmed in aggregate, and while there are quality teams at the top, the league's middle remains too soft to earn widespread confidence. The result, Powers argues, is an uphill climb for a second bid, especially with other leagues producing stronger week-to-week résumés.
In short, the path from the ACC to the playoff is narrowing to a single lane, and it may come down to style points as much as signature wins.
"It's looking more and more like the ACC is going to be a one-bid league," he says.
The Big 12 is trending toward a similar outcome, but for a very different reason: dominance at the top, particularly from Texas Tech, could strangle opportunities for others to make a compelling case.
Meanwhile, the SEC's depth remains the sport's most bankable constant. In a 12-team format, the sheer number of high-end SEC résumés could crowd out second-tier hopefuls from other leagues, even if their champions are solid. That reality reframes late-season matchups as elimination games not just for titles, but for precious at-large bids.
"You don't have to get too creative, believe it or not, to see the SEC getting six teams," Powers says. "We could see half the field being from the SEC in the 12-team playoffs."
Playoff and championship scenarios for top teams
At the top, Ohio State has formed a thin but discernible edge. On a neutral field, Powers projects the Buckeyes as up to a 6.5-point favorite over Alabama, clear respect for their consistency and two-way ceiling. Yet that edge isn't the yawning gulf we've seen in prior seasons. The upper crust is more compressed, and a few key plays in conference championship week could rewrite the bracket. If anything, this parity amplifies the premium on in-game adaptability and situational coaching in the season's closing acts.
"Ohio State is starting to separate itself from the rest of the pack, but still it's not like a huge gap like we've seen in other years," Powers proclaims.
Notre Dame, left for dead after an 0-2 start, has stormed back with seven straight double-digit wins. That kind of momentum doesn't just strengthen a résumé; it changes how opponents plan. Powers flags the Irish as a dangerous draw, especially if the bracket keeps them away from Ohio State early.
In a field with slimmer margins than usual, Notre Dame's ability to front-run and dictate tempo makes them a potential disruptor to chalky semifinal expectations.
This year's QB class continues to underwhelm
This season's Heisman conversation feels unusually intertwined with skepticism about the quarterback class. Powers' lens is pragmatic: quarterback play has swung results across the Top-15, but the tape and traits haven't consistently matched the draft buzz. That tension makes for a Heisman race driven as much by team success and leverage moments as by transcendent, can't-miss quarterback profiles.
"I wouldn't draft any of them in my Top 10," he says. "So we know probably three are going in the Top 10, but none of them I would if I had the GM cap on."
If this year's class is a buyer-beware market, next year's may be the moment to pounce. Powers' forward view reframes the Heisman narrative too: what looks like a wide-open race now could be a prelude to a stronger, more star-driven quarterback cycle to come. For Week 12 bettors, that means pricing Heisman odds with an extra dose of humility and letting the playoff chase, not draft chatter, drive your numbers.
"I love next year's quarterback class," he says. "That will be the quarterback class where you want to be drafting."
Injury impacts and team momentum
Oregon's path illustrates how injuries can quietly erode a contender's résumé. The Ducks may be favored down the stretch, but the sum of dings and lineup adjustments has dulled their week-to-week sharpness. Without a string of elite wins to offset that attrition, their playoff case sits on thinner ice than the odds might imply. This is where November often separates the merely good from the truly elite: who can keep winning when their A-plan isn't available?
Momentum, meanwhile, is more than vibes; it's evidence that a team's identity is locked in. Notre Dame's recent run of double-digit victories is the quintessential example: when a team consistently covers margin, it signals schematic clarity and depth. Ohio State, too, has coupled physicality with adaptable game plans in ways that translate in any venue. Conversely, squads riding close wins or shootout scripts can be brittle once the calendar flips to championship season.
