Two Top-25 teams that faced surprisingly stiff challenges last week will look to pick up their first Power Four wins of the season when the Arizona Wildcats visit the Kansas State Wildcats in Week 3.
Arizona was down to Northern Arizona at the half on Saturday before coming back to win 22-10. Kansas State needs a comeback of its own to escape with a 34-27 road win over a dangerous Tulane.
My early Arizona vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks are expecting the Wildcats to control this game and cover this 7-point spread.
Arizona vs Kansas State predictions
Early spread lean
Kansas State -7 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It was surprising to see the Arizona Wildcats struggle against Northern Arizona, an FCS squad that went just 5-6 last season, especially after the Wildcats beat the Lumberjacks comfortably 38-3 last season.
Arizona’s defense came up big in the contest, holding the Lumberjacks to just 198 yards and forcing a second-half safety, but the Wildcats managed just 361 yards of offense against a weak opponent.
The Kansas State Wildcats' struggles were a bit more predictable. Tulane is coming off a 10-3 season and is a dark horse to snag the guaranteed Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff.
Still, few expected the Green Wave to have a lead most of that game, and the Wildcats can’t be happy they allowed 342 yards through the air and another 149 on the ground.
As you might have guessed, neither of these teams covered and both are now 0-2 ATS this season. That said, if we look back to last season, both are performing reasonably well: Kansas State has won five of its last six, and Arizona is riding a nine-game winning streak.
Of the two teams, however, Arizona is the one I’m more worried about after last week’s close calls. It’s going to need a lot more out of sophomore quarterback Noah Fifita than it's gotten so far this year, as he's thrown two interceptions against what should have been overmatched defenses.
Against a Kansas State unit that forced turnovers and scored a touchdown against Tulane, Fifita — or someone — is going to have to step up big and I don’t see that happening in this matchup.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Last week’s close calls shared a common thread: offensive struggles that required both defenses to bail out their respective offensive units. Arizona showcased this more dramatically, but even Kansas State wasn’t exactly humming when it had the ball, requiring a fumble return for a touchdown to get the winning score in the fourth quarter.
Some Arizona fans might point to the fact the Wildcats were able to hang 61 points on New Mexico in its first game this season. I wouldn’t put too much stock into that performance, however: the 0-2 Lobos also allowed 35 points to FCS Montana State, including 21 points in the fourth quarter, so they’re not exactly a shutdown defense to be proud of scoring against.
Kansas State, on the other hand, is a team that will be relying on its defense to win games against quality teams. Even against a completely outgunned UT Martin squad, it was the Wildcats defense that showed out in a 41-6 win, holding the Skyhawks to just 134 total yards of offensive.
However, Kansas State still turned the ball over twice, and really only moved the ball on the ground, with DJ Giddens racking up 124 yards on just 13 carries. Considering UT Martin went on to allow 45 points to Southeast Missouri State last weekend, that’s not an overly impressive performance.
With both teams looking stronger on the defensive side of the ball and relatively evenly matched, I expect this game to be a tight contest where field position plays an important role and both offenses have periods where they stall out.
Arizona vs Kansas State live odds
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