Air Force vs San Jose State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Falcons Continue Strong Play

Mountain West football gives bettors some fun action tonight with two very intriguing conference games on the docket. 

The game I'll be breaking down is an undefeated Air Force Falcons squad aiming to stay perfect as it hits the road to face the reeling San Jose State Spartans. 

Looking at college football odds, Air Force is favored by just over a field goal (-3.5) while the total is set at 46.5 across most locations. One thing's for sure, that total is too high for my liking.

Read on as I give you my best college football picks for Air Force vs. San Jose State on Friday, September 22. 

Air Force vs San Jose State best odds

Air Force vs San Jose State picks and predictions

Air Force has been on a mission to start the year, moving to 3-0 with wins over Robert Morris, Sam Houston State, and Utah State. It’s fair to question the Falcons’ strength of schedule as two of those teams played at the FCS level a year ago, while Utah State has lost four of its last five games dating back to last season. 

Still, the Falcons handled their competition with ease in an encouraging display on both sides of the ball. Despite a lot of new ball carries seeing the field this season, the offense has looked great, ranking 24th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate.

The offensive line has been tremendous yet again, ranking fourth in stuff rate and 11th in line yards. For a second straight year, the defense has also thrived, ranking ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success rate, and second in explosiveness while limiting opponents to 10.3 ppg and 179.3 total ypg. 

San Jose State is looking to put its shaky non-conference play in the past after winning just a single game in four tries. That leaves Brent Brennan’s team a bit of a wild card heading into Mountain West play.

The offense has yet to gel, ranking 108th in EPA per play and 104th in success rate. Chevan Cordeiro is an experienced quarterback and may be the best in the Mountain West, but there are a lack of impact receiving options at his disposal and the offensive line has underperformed yet again, ranking just 129th in stuff rate and 120th in power success rate despite returning a ton of experience.

It would be surprising to see an offensive outburst from the Spartans here as they’ve been struggling mightily and are coming off a miserable performance on the road at Toledo. Air Force has looked strong defensively for the second straight year now, making this a difficult matchup. 

When the Falcons have the ball, it’d be surprising if this elite offensive line doesn’t pave the way for yet another successful day running the rock. The Falcons lead the nation in rushing yards per game (320.7) and should be able to exploit a very green Spartans defensive front that lost two star players, Junior Fehoko and Cade Hall (combined 31 TFL, 16.5 sacks last year), from the 2022 squad. 

The Spartans rank just 128th in defensive line yards to start the year and will have their backs against the wall trying to stop the Falcons from keeping the chains moving on the ground. Air Force checks in at just 129th in explosiveness, so I expect the offense to keep the ball moving while not necessarily lighting up the scoreboard. 

My projected game flow favors the Under and that’s what I’ll be playing as my best bet. There’s still a 47 available at the time of this writing so I’ll grab it up, but I won't be comfortable playing this number down a few points if the line movement does continue in that direction. 

My best bet: Under 47 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Air Force vs San Jose State same-game parlay

Under 46.5

Air Force -3.5

+228 at FanDuel

If this game plays out as I expect it to in my handicap, then my same-game parlay will have a chance at coming home. What I’m doing is adding Air Force -3.5 to my best bet on the Under as outlined above to create a correlated two-leg SGP. 

I’m usually inclined to play the underdog in a game featuring service academies considering possessions are limited. I can’t do that here, however, as I believe Air Force is simply the better team on both sides of the ball and should be able to cover this small spread. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Air Force vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened at San Jose State +4 but has since come in a half point, moving to +3.5. If you’re looking to play the moneyline, the best price on Air Force is -164 while the best comeback on San Jose State is +150. The total is set at 46.5 at most locations, although a flat 47 is also available. 

The Falcons have been a Top 25 team on both sides of the ball while the Spartans rank outside the Top 100 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. I’m inclined to buy into the early season results as they do jive with my preseason expectations. 

Air Force ranked Top 10 in returning tackles to a superb defense while the offense continues to churn out yards on the ground. Troy Calhoun has this program humming and the Falcons remain a threat to win the conference title. His squad has won eight straight games overall and has been reliable on the road, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine away games. 

SJSU is having a tough time replacing impact defensive players and the offense has yet to find answers with a lack of playmakers out wide and an offensive line that continues to underperform. Brennan’s squad has failed to cover each of its last six games against Mountain West opponents.

Air Force vs San Jose State betting trend to know

Air Force is 3-7 O/U in its last 10 games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs San Jose State.

Air Force vs San Jose State game info

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