The first leg of the battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy takes place this week as the Air Force Falcons head to Annapolis to take on the Navy Midshipmen.
Air Force enters this matchup with a perfect 6-0 record while Navy sits at 3-3. But nobody cares about that. This game is all about Service Academy Unders!
Yes, it’s the return of the greatest trend in sports betting. But the secret is out and oddsmakers have adjusted. Does that mean the incredible run on Unders is coming to an end? Or can this classic matchup live up (or down?) to expectations?
I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Air Force vs. Navy.
Air Force vs Navy best odds
Air Force vs Navy picks and predictions
For the uninitiated.
When service academy programs face off, the Under is 43-10-1 dating back to 2005. That’s a crazy 81.1% cash rate.
While betting trends blindly is dumb, some trends still hold value as a jumping-off point for your research, and the Service Academy Unders still falls into that category.
As noted, the secret is out about this trend and oddsmakers have adjusted. When Air Force and Navy faced off back in 2020, the total was 47.5. This time around, it opened at 37.5 and has already been bet down as low as 34. But despite this adjustment, I wouldn’t necessarily say run out and bet the Over.
These Unders have cashed at such a high rate because all of the Service Academy programs run some form of a triple-option offense. That essentially means they very rarely throw the football.
If these teams are always running the rock, the clock is always moving. And with the new rules in college football where the clock doesn’t stop after a first down, time will pass by even more quickly.
On top of that, since both teams run the triple option, there aren’t many teams in the country more well-equipped to defend the triple option. So, be prepared for a lot of three-yard runs.
Looking at previous matchups between these two schools, the Under has been all too common. The final score in last year's game was 13-10, and a year before saw a 23-3 final score. Both numbers fall well below Saturday's total of 34.5.
On top of that, both Air Force and Navy could be using backup quarterbacks in this game. And if you don’t think having your starting quarterback make the proper reads in this type of offense is important, I don’t know what to tell you.
While an adjustment by the books has been made and Overs will probably start evening this trend out sooner rather than later, there's no reason to get off this train until we see it for ourselves.
Besides...if you bet Overs in Service Academy games, you hate fun.
My best bet: Under 34.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Air Force vs Navy same-game parlay
Under 34.5
Air Force alt spread -5.5
John Lee Eldridge III anytime touchdown
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As always, our same-game parlay starts with my best bet, which in this matchup is of course the Under 34.5. And while I don’t expect there to be much scoring, Air Force should do the majority of it.
The Falcons are not only the class of the Service Academy programs, but they may be the class of the Group of Five this year. But as I broke down, these games are super weird. Instead of laying double-digit chalk in a game with a total so low, I’ll take Air Force at -5.5 on the alternate spread at -5.5.
And let’s close this SGP out with one of those Air Force players to find the end zone. My favorite value is John Lee Eldridge III's anytime touchdown prop, as the Falcons running back has found paydirt four times in as many games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Air Force vs Navy spread and Over/Under analysis
Air Force enters this Service Academy matchup with a perfect 6-0 record and has its sights set on a Mountain West title. Navy has won two in a row to even its record at 3-3, but those wins have not come against good competition.
Air Force leads the nation in rushing while Navy ranks 76th in opponent yards per attempt. So, it was no surprise to see Air Force open as 10-point road favorites. The line has since bounced back and forth between 10 and 10.5.
We already broke down the total at length. It opened at 37.5 and has gradually been bet down all week, now sitting at 34.5.
Air Force vs Navy betting trend to know
The Under is 43-10-1 in the last 54 meetings between service academy programs. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs Navy.
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Air Force vs Navy game info
| Location: | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, October 21, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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