UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston Odds, Picks and Predictions: Explosive Colonial Championship Game in DC

The Charleston Cougars will try to continue their magical season by securing an automatic NCAA Tournament bid as they take on the upset-minded North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament final on Tuesday.

Charleston (30-3) has put itself in the bubble conversation for an at-large bid into March Madness but likely needs to win on Tuesday to secure its spot in the tournament. UNC Wilmington (24-9) upset the Hofstra Pride in the CAA semifinals, scoring a 79-73 win in overtime.

These two teams met twice during the regular season, with the Cougars winning both times. We’ll take a look at what those games can tell us about tonight’s matchup in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Charleston vs. UNC Wilmington on Tuesday.

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston best odds

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston picks and predictions

Charleston has done just about everything it could to put itself in position for an NCAA Tournament bid this season. The team is more than just a gaudy record, and the Cougars might have already clinched their ticket to the big dance if they hadn’t suffered a two-game slump a month ago that saw them lose to Hofstra and Drexel by a combined five points.

Since that time, Charleston has righted the ship. The Cougars come into the CAA title game on a nine-game winning streak. The Cougars scored at least 83 points in each of their last seven regular-season contests, and have continued scoring well in the postseason, scoring 74 against the Stony Brook Seawolves and 77 against the Towson Tigers in their CAA Tournament games.

That fits into what we’ve seen from Charleston all year long. The Cougars play fast and have overwhelmed their competition, scoring 81.7 points per game. While they haven’t played the highest level of competition, they’ve consistently put up points, even scoring 86 in an early-season loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels. 

UNC Wilmington isn’t quite on the same level but has played well to get to this point. The Seahawks entered the tournament as the No. 4 seed, and have beaten Drexel and Hofstra to get to the championship game. 

While Wilmington has stood out due to its defense this year —allowing just 64 points per game — it has relied just as much on its offense in the CAA Tournament. The Seahawks scored 73 against Drexel and 71 in regulation before beating Hofstra in overtime.

The Cougars came out on top in the first two meetings between these teams, though by very different margins. Rather than figure out if Charleston can cover a huge spread today, I’d rather focus on the total, where the Over looks like the clear play.

In the first two meetings between these teams, they played to totals of 140 and 154. During their nine-game winning streak, Charleston has played to a total of 150 or more on six occasions and was over 140 two other times. Wilmington doesn’t play to those game big numbers but has still finished at over 140 points in six of its last eight games.

Despite this history, you can still get a total on this game as low as 140.5. That’s a number that’s far too low for this matchup. The only factor that would seem to suggest a low total is the UNC Wilmington defense, and Charleston will push it into an up-tempo game where points will be scored, just as in its last two meetings. Take the Over tonight with confidence.

My best bet: Over 140.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston spread analysis

Charleston opened tonight’s game as a 9-point favorite. Money has been coming in on the Cougars, and as of noon on Tuesday, the consensus spread is now Charleston -10. 

Both teams have been solid against the spread, with the Cougars being particularly strong for bettors. UNC Wilmington has a 16-13-2 ATS record on the year, while Charleston is 19-12-1 ATS.

As I suggested above, the two regular season games between these two teams played out very differently. In their most recent meeting on February 8, the Cougars scored a 93-61 blowout win at home. But when the Seahawks hosted Charleston on January 11, they managed to stay in the game, nearly completing a second-half comeback before falling 71-69.

Charleston did dominate much of that game before nearly falling apart over the last 15 minutes, and the Cougars did reestablish dominance over the Seahawks in their home matchup. Given those factors, I’d take Charleston minus the points if I had to make a pick here. 

However, the neutral site makes me very wary of giving up double-digits to a team that has already hung tight against Charleston once this season. My advice is to stay away from the spread market on this game.

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 140 points, but bettors quickly realized that this number was a bit low. The consensus Over/Under is up to 140.5, but some sportsbooks have gone as high as 141.5, and I suspect the total will drift upward throughout the day. 

The Over is just 5-3-1 in Charleston’s last nine games, and the Cougars haven’t hit an over in any of their last three outings. However, as I explained above, this is a bit misleading. In all but one of those games, Charleston has played to a total of well over 140, as it continues to push the pace and score at will against weaker competition in the CAA.

Meanwhile, UNC Wilmington has hit the Over in five of its last six games. While this is a team that sometimes plays low-scoring slogs, it has had trouble doing that against teams with offensive talent or those that push the pace. Charleston meets both of those criteria, and even in a surprisingly low-scoring affair in Wilmington’s building, these two teams scraped together 140 points.

That game proves that it’s not impossible for these teams to hit the Under tonight, but that’s at the very low end of reasonable results for this matchup. A more reasonable total would be several points higher, and we see bettors already pushing the total toward that range. Get in while the number is as low as possible and take the Over tonight.

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in UNC-Wilmington’s last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for UNC-Wilmington vs. Charleston.

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston game info

UNC-Wilmington vs Charleston key injuries

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