TCU vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Shooting Out Lights in Conference Play

Wednesday hoops in the Big 12 see red-hot TCU (12-1) travel to Waco to face Baylor (10-3) in a game between two Top-20 teams. 

This is a tale of two squads headed in opposite directions. TCU is looking up with 10 straight wins, including one over Texas Tech to open conference play.

Baylor, on the other hand, suffered an ugly 77-62 loss to Iowa State on New Year's Eve and will be looking to bounce back here at home.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears on Wednesday, January 4 to find out how this will shake out. 

TCU vs Baylor best odds

TCU vs Baylor picks and predictions

Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs returned a wealth of experience from last year’s team that finished 21-13, and early returns are promising. After 10 straight wins, the Frogs look to stay hot as conference play begins in earnest. 

A 67-61 victory over Texas Tech on New Year’s Eve was certainly an encouraging sign for the team’s chances in the Big 12. After trailing 37-26 at the half, the Frogs dominated the second half by a score of 41-24 to rattle off a 67-61 victory. 

TCU is proficient on both ends of the floor, scoring 78.1 points per game (62nd) while allowing just 61.2 (32nd). Point guard Mike Miles is the star of the show, averaging 18.6 ppg, while Emanuel Miller (14.2 ppg) and Damion Baugh (11.7 ppg) are the other two Frogs averaging double figures. 

Baylor faced a more challenging non-conference schedule, although the results have been mixed this season despite a ranking within the Top 25. Wins over UCLA and Gonzaga are both very impressive and likely top any victory TCU has mustered this season. On the other hand, the Bears didn’t look terrific in losses to Virginia and Marquette, and a 77-62 loss two Iowa State to open conference play was concerning. 

Baylor should receive a boost as LJ Cryer is expected to return from a two-game absence after clearing concussion protocol and returning to practice. His 14.9 ppg will be welcomed back to a lineup that also features impact guards Adam Flagler (16.5 ppg) and freshman Keyonte George (15.6 ppg).

The guard play in this game should be terrific, and the pace should be above-average considering TCU checks in at 62nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while Baylor is 117th. Both teams like to get out and run to let their lead guards cook, and this one would need quite a defensive performance in order to cash the Under. Therefore, I’ll be playing the Over as my best bet. 

My best bet: Over 141 (-109 at Pinnacle)

TCU vs Baylor spread analysis

Baylor is established as a -5.5 favorite at the time of this writing. 

The Bears are 6-7 against the spread this season but have traditionally gotten up at home for games like this, going 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. Baylor is off to a perfect 7-0 straight-up record at home, although the opponents haven’t been anything to speak of and TCU will be the best away team — by far — to enter the Ferrell Center this season. 

One factor in Baylor’s favor is that the favorite is on an 11-2-1 ATS run in the last 14 meetings between these two schools. 

TCU is off to a profitable 7-5-1 ATS run. The Frogs have traditionally been a good underdog bet in spots like this, posting a 15-5-2 ATS mark in their last 22 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. And they've been road warriors under Dixon, notching a 20-8-1 ATS run in their last 29 road games. 

If playing this game, I’m inclined to lean with the visitors. Baylor has been up and down this season, showcasing some terrific highs while bottoming out at its lows. I’ll need to see more consistency before I anticipate dominance in Big 12 play, a tough conference with many pitfalls along the way. TCU is riding hot with 10 straight wins and could keep this one close while threatening an upset. 

TCU vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

Let’s take a look at KenPom’s rating to get a better feel for how each team grades out heading into this matchup.

Baylor is led by its offense, ranking 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bears operate a guard-oriented attack in which its three lead scorers and heavy usage players (Flagler, George, Cryer) aren’t exactly giants — George is the tallest of the bunch at 6-foot-4. 

The Bears average 79.3 ppg and shoot the ball well, ranking 93rd in field goal percentage (46.5%) and 112th in three-point percentage (35.4%). 

TCU is actually led by its defense, ranking 83rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The fact that the Frogs like to get out and run to play with pace mitigates these rankings for me when handicapping the total. 

TCU vs Baylor betting trend to know

TCU is 4-0 to the Over in its last four Wednesday games. Find more College basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Baylor.

TCU vs Baylor game info

TCU vs Baylor key injuries

TCU: None.
Baylor: LJ Cryer G (Questionable), Dantawn Grimes G (Out).

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