St. John's vs West Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Slazinski Can't Weather Red Storm

Head coach Rick Pitino and St. John's will hit the road for the first time during his tenure when the Red Storm meet up with West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 5.5-point underdogs in the college basketball odds.

This is a meeting of two teams who have already taken some lumps early this season. St. John's was blown out of the water against Michigan in New York earlier this year and has since lost in a closely-fought game against Dayton. It will arrive at this game off a blow-out win against Holy Cross.

West Virginia has three losses on the season and is still adjusting to life without former headman Bob Huggins. It won a tight one against Bellarmine coming into this matchup and had dropped a heartbreaker by two points to in-state rival Virginia before that. 

What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, December 1.

St. John's vs West Virginia best odds

St. John's vs West Virginia picks and predictions

Rick Pitino & Co. have done a good job in one area this season, and that's shutting down a team's primary scoring option and making others beat them. You can't earn some of Pitino's accomplishments in his career without this ability. 

I'm grabbing a player prop tonight on West Virginia's leading scorer Quinn Slazinski and taking the Under on points scored. This is a Mountaineers offense that has struggled to generate points outside of Slazinski, and if there's one thing Pitino can do, it's slow down your No. 1 option, mainly when the others are limited around him. And oh yeah, this is a reunion. Slazinski spent two years with Pitino at Iona before transferring to West Virginia this offseason, and it's become a talking point heading into this one. 

"This is just a big game," Slazinski said on a Zoom call Thursday ahead of the matchup. "I told the West Virginia staff, I'm not here to play one-on-one versus Rick Pitino, I'm here to play West Virginia against St. John's."

Slazinski can say the right things, but his actions may tell a different story. It's undoubtedly anecdotal, but as someone who has followed Slazinski's career, he's more susceptible to getting swallowed up in big moments than others. He is a charismatic player who wears his emotions on his sleeve. Sometimes this can benefit you, and sometimes it can hurt you. However, when you add up the Pitino familiarity aspect, I'm banking on the former happening. Of course, that's not the only part of this. It's also what's happening on the court.

Slazinski has gotten the most of his opportunities from spot-up sets this season. He's a knockdown 3-point shooter at around a 38% clip to start the year, so it makes sense that he's getting about 20% of these sets called for him. St. John's should have an antidote for this in the form of Chris Ledlum. It wasn't lost on me that Pitino spent some of his pregame press conference comparing the two players, and he'll spend the majority of the game guarding him here. He can slow him down.

On spot-up sets, Ledlum is holding opposing players to 25% shooting. Ledlum has held his opponent to 27% in overall halfcourt sets as the primary defender. Given how much this West Virginia offense has struggled to be efficient this season – ranking 176 there in Kenpom – I'm fully suspecting that the Johnnies will make someone other than Slazinski beat us. After all, Hall of Fame coaches don't become Hall of Fame coaches by effectively letting you run the things you want.

Slazinski has had steady production throughout this season so far and eclipsed this number in every game but one. With that said, he's yet to have an off-game so far, and with all the extra narratives surrounding this game, this is a prime spot for that to happen. Not to mention that he's facing one of the best defenders he's seen this season. I'll grab this number and expect Pitino to craft a game plan that slows down his ex-player.

My best bet: Quinn Slazinski Under 15.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)

St. John's vs West Virginia same-game parlay

Quinn Slazinski Under 15.5 points

Jesse Edwards Over 15.5 points

Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 points

+449 at FanDuel

It's player prop central for this same-game parlay as we're pairing our best bet with two other props. 

The first of these is Jesse Edwards Over 15.5 points. The Syracuse transfer is an excellent talent, and bigs have given St. John's issues this season. He's also the most likely to profit from Slazinski having an off-game. Expect him to clean up around the rim here.

Finishing us off is Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 points. West Virginia grades out in the Bottom 18% of college basketball in pick-and-roll defense. Jenkins thrives here. He should be able to get downhill well against the defense to put himself in solid scoring positions. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John's vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

St. John's has a coaching advantage here (no offense, but interim man Josh Eilert needs more experience) and a talent advantage. 

Between Ledlum, Jenkins, and others, it has a much more extensive roster of scorers, which will prove vital in this one against a team that struggles for points. With that in mind, I lean to St. John's -5.5 here. It will force West Virginia to prove it can make jumpers with some heavy dosages up matchup 2-3 zone, and that's something it has yet to show it can do very well much of this season. Both of these teams could have been more impressive ATS, with both sitting at 5-5 records against the spread in their last 10 games.

This total opened at 141 and has moved a half-point since. It feels spot-on to me, and my projections made it 142. With that in mind, I have no play here.

Whether this game goes Over depends on how often West Virginia wants to play the foul game late. That's something I'm not interested in handicapping. That said, West Virginia games have been on a nice Under run to start the year. All but one of its games have gone Under except an 8-point win in the second game of the season against Monmouth. 

St. John's vs West Virginia betting trend to know

St. John's has hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. West Virginia.

St. John's vs West Virginia game info

St. John's vs West Virginia key injuries

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