Tonight, No. 21 San Diego State looks to lock up the Mountain West title with a win over UNLV at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Will Brian Dutcher’s team get the job done? Keep reading our San Diego State vs. UNLV picks and predictions for March 3 to find out. Not only do the Aztecs have a chance to win the conference tonight, but they can also secure the first seed in the Mountain West tournament.
San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Rebels betting preview
Injuries
San Diego State: G Keith Dinwiddie Jr. (Questionable)
UNLV: G Marvin Coleman (Out), G Isaac Lindsey (Out)
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last six home games against teams with winning road records. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Diego State vs. UNLV.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSan Diego State opened as 10-point chalk late Tuesday night at DraftKings and overnight ticked down to -9.5, where the number sits at noon ET. Still, early point-spread action is heavy to the Aztecs, at 77 percent of tickets and 95 percent of money. The total opened at 131.5, dipped to 129.5, rebounded to 132, then returned to the 131.5 opener, with the Over getting 85 percent of bets, but just 55 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Make no mistake about it: San Diego State is a very good basketball team. This program has had a ton of success over the last decade or so, and nothing is different this year. On the season, the Aztecs are ninth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom.com), and the team has a pair of outrageous offensive weapons in Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel. Overall, this is a group that nobody is going to want to face in the NCAA Tournament.
The issue for the Aztecs here is that the Runnin’ Rebels have been extremely competitive as of late. In UNLV’s last five games, the team has won three contests and lost the other two by a total of five points. And Bryce Hamilton, who is averaging 18.5 points per game this year, is capable of getting hot in a hurry. UNLV likely won’t win this game outright, but Hamilton is going to appreciate playing on a big stage, and the Rebels are going to be fired up to play the role of spoiler.
Also, San Diego State is going to have some nerves in this game. The Aztecs are the better basketball team by a wide margin in this one, and should comfortably win. But it wouldn’t be too shocking if some of these players tense up with an opportunity to win the conference hanging over them.
PREDICTION: UNLV +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Considering San Diego State is a great defensive team, it’s hard to imagine UNLV really getting hot in this game. The Runnin’ Rebels haven’t been scoring a lot in recent weeks, and they have actually scored less than 70 points in nine of their last 10. If they’re not scoring against some of their weaker conference opponents, it will be hard for them to do it against the Aztecs.
Meanwhile, San Diego State could also struggle to get going here. The team has a lot to play for in this one, and the pressure could lead to some early jitters.
PREDICTION: Under 131.5 (-110)
San Diego State vs UNLV betting card
- UNLV +9.5 (-110)
- Under 131.5 (-110)
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