Last-place Penn State comes to town tonight. The Wolverines could be excused for overlooking the Nittany Lions, except Penn State nearly upset Michigan a month ago, losing by only two points.
The Wolverines got their wakeup call and will take care of business. My Penn State vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks expect Michigan to cover the hefty spread.
Penn State vs Michigan prediction
Penn State vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -25 (-110)
The Michigan Wolverines were undefeated and flying high when it went to Penn State on January 6, then blew a 15-point lead in two minutes and barely hung on to win.
The Nittany Lions didn’t even have a “perfect storm” game. They were far from can’t-miss from three, didn’t have any one player explode for 30 points. There was nothing Michigan can write off as a rare fluke. Penn State just made its shots, got offensive rebounds and turned the Wolverines over.
The Nittany Lions have consistently pushed elite competition to the brink. Beyond the two-point loss to Michigan, they came up just short against Michigan State (by four), Ohio State (by six), and dropped eight-point decisions against both Illinois and Purdue.
Penn State has too many holes on defense, however. They have allowed the last five opponents to hit .654 from two-point range and .426 from three. The last three games have seen foes shoot .708 from two and .375 from three. Even in the first game against Michigan, Penn State couldn’t stop the Wolverines, who hit 60% from two.
With the No. 2 interior defense in the country and a top-25 perimeter unit, Michigan is well equipped to stifle Penn State offensively and should have little trouble carving up the Nittany Lions’ defense to pull away.
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Penn State vs Michigan same-game parlay
Prior to the win over Minnesota, Penn State allowed four of the previous six opponents to score more than 90 points and another put up 84. It has gone over in the last five games and six of seven.
Kayden Mingo didn’t play in the first Michigan game, but he’s had five or more assists in seven of the last nine games. It should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to get assists.
The odds on this prop seem way too long, but we’ll take the gift.
Penn State vs Michigan SGP
- Michigan -25
- Over 161.5 points
- Kayden Mingo Over 3.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Cadeau guides the offense
Elliot Cadeau has been inconsistent this season. He’s scored in double figures just four times in 10 games since Christmas and was 3-of-8, 1-of-5 from three, in the first Penn State game.
He also had just one assist and three turnovers as he struggled against the Nittany Lions’ ball pressure. Michigan is deep enough that they don’t need Cadeau to have a big scoring game.
Look for other players to get the points while Cadeau concentrates on running the offense.
Penn State vs Michigan SGP
- Michigan -25
- Over 161.5 points
- Kayden Mingo Over 3.5 assists
- Elliot Cadeau Under 11.5 points
Penn State vs Michigan odds
- Spread: Penn State +25 (-110) | Michigan -25 (-110)
- Moneyline: Penn State (Coming soon.) | Michigan (Coming soon.)
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Penn State vs Michigan betting trend to know
Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Michigan.
How to watch Penn State vs Michigan
| Location | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Thursday, February 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Penn State vs Michigan key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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