Oregon vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Dominate in Pac-12 Showdown

Two familiar Pac-12 foes in Oregon and UCLA are going to battle with a ton of talent and offensive firepower. We break down the matchup and more in our college basketball betting picks below.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 1:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
N'Faly Dante Oregon Ducks Pac-12 college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s a great Pac-12 contest to look forward to as Oregon (4-4) heads to Los Angeles to face the No. 21-ranked UCLA Bruins (6-2).

The Ducks have ramped up after a slow start, winning two in a row including their Pac-12 opener against Washington State. 

It hasn’t been a great start for Mick Cronin and the Bruins considering the high expectations heaped on them heading into the season, but three comfortable wins in a row should have the team feeling confident.

Which team will keep its respective winning streak alive? Read our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. UCLA below to find out. 

Oregon vs UCLA best odds

Oregon vs UCLA picks and predictions

Has UCLA’s open to the year really been a disappointment? The Bruins have suffered two losses to drop outside of the Top 20 in the AP Poll rankings, but both losses were far from an indictment as they came against two tough opponents — No. 6 Baylor (80-75) and No. 16 Illinois (79-70).

Two familiar faces in Jaimie Jaquez and Tyger Campbell lead the way for Cronin’s team in 2022. Jaquez leads the team with 18.0 points and 5.8 rebounds, while Campbell is one of the nation’s top point guards and averages 14.4 points and 5.3 assists.

Jaylen Clark has emerged as a tertiary scoring option in his third season on campus, netting 14 points per game while snaring 6.7 rebounds. Impact freshman Amari Bailey (11.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists) and Adem Bona (8.0 points, 4.3 rebounds) are two impact contributors who add an influx of talent to add to the familiar veterans. 

The Bruins check in at No. 8 overall in KenPom, so early returns indicate that two losses to two tough opponents shouldn’t cause college basketball fans to drop our expectations for this unit too far. 

Dana Altman’s crew is another unit assembled primarily via the transfer portal, as is the coach’s MO. The Ducks check in at No. 41 in KenPom while ranking 30th in offensive efficiency and 64th in defensive efficiency.

N’Faley Dante (14.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 blocks) and Will Richardson (14.1 points, 5.3 assists, 1.1 steals) are two veterans leading the way, but this team seems to lack quality depth and is looking for more ancillary contributors to make an impact.

This problem is exacerbated by the fact that guards Keeshawn Barthelemy (8.5 points) and Jermain Couisnard (12.2 points last year with South Carolina) are both out until early January with injuries. 

The bet I have circled in this matchup is on the total. Early money came in, dropping the total from 144 to as low as 140.5 in some spots, but I will be buying back at that price. Both teams have been better offensively than defensively this season, and the trends support an Over play.

The Ducks are 23-7-1 to the Over in their last 31 road games, while the Bruins are 5-0 to the Over in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five home games.

My best bet: Over 140.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Oregon vs UCLA spread analysis

UCLA ranges from -9.5 to -10.5 depending on the book, so be sure to shop around. At the time of this writing, -9.5 (-120) is available at FanDuel while the best price on Oregon is +10.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

Dana Altman has had UCLA’s number recently. The Ducks have won four straight games against the Bruins to move Altman’s career record to 14-9 in the series. Entering this one as a double-digit underdog, is it possible they can keep that streak alive?

From a bettor’s standpoint, we’re more concerned with whether or not the Ducks can cover this spread. Considering Altman’s recent success against the Bruins, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Oregon keep things closer than anticipated in this matchup. 

UCLA has won 13 straight games at Pauley Pavillion. The last team that beat them? Yep, it was Oregon, which won on January 13 in overtime over the No. 3-ranked Bruins.

This will be Oregon’s first road trip outside of its own state, but it’s refreshing to note that Altman has had success in this matchup in the past and that Oregon has found a little bit of a groove lately, winning two straight.

N’Faley Dante leads the frontcourt and had 22 points a game ago in the 74-60 win over Washington State, while Will Richardson led the backcourt with 17 points, eight assists, and three steals. The Ducks may lack depth, but they have veteran, go-to options that should keep this game close.

Oregon vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total has come crashing down since opening at 144, moving to 141.5 in most spots. If you fancy an Over, the best odds at current are 140.5 (-110) at FanDuel.

Both teams have been better on the offensive side of things than they have been defenisvely. The Bruins are an elite offensive unit with five players averaging at least 11 points per game and rank seventh in KenPom’s offensive efficiency compared to 27th in defensive efficiency.

The Ducks remain solid on the offensive side of things (30th in offensive efficiency) but have shown some significant cracks in their defense (64th in defensive efficiency). 

UCLA is unquestionably a high-level offensive team. The Bruins check in at 28th in points per game (82.6) and have gotten there in a very efficient manner, ranking seventh in field goal percentage (51.4%) and 27th in 3-point shooting (39.5%).

They should be able to find plenty of weaknesses against a Ducks defense that’s 125th in field goal defense (41.3%) and 216th in defending the 3-point arc (34%).

The Ducks aren’t terrific at any one thing offensively and generally lack ancillary scoring options, as only three players average double figures. Still, they have been trending toward points when playing on the road by putting up a 19-6-1 run to the Over in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. 

Oregon vs UCLA betting trend to know

The Ducks are 23-7-1 to the Over in their last 31 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. UCLA.

Oregon vs UCLA game info

Location: Pauley Pavillion, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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