Ohio State vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Have No Answers for Scoring Stars

The Buckeyes defense hasn't been able to stop a nosebleed this season, while Wisconsin's stop unit is mired in a bad stretch. Our college basketball betting picks don't see these trends changing on Tuesday night.

Feb 13, 2024 • 11:00 ET • 4 min read
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AJ Storr Wisconsin Badgers NCAAM
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Just two weeks ago the Wisconsin Badgers looked like one of the best teams in the country and a real threat in the Big Ten. Now the program has lost four in a row and is in desperate need of a win. Luckily for Greg Gard, the Ohio State Buckeyes are coming to town, and Chris Holtmann’s program hasn’t won a road game since January 1, 2023.

Given Ohio State’s struggles this season and its inability to win on the road, the college basketball odds have Wisconsin as a 9-point home favorite.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin on Tuesday, February 13.

Ohio State vs Wisconsin best odds

Ohio State vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Earlier this season, both of these defenses were at worst respectable, and the Wisconsin Badgers’ was even one of the best in the Big Ten. However, the Badgers have fallen off a cliff over the last two weeks, and the Ohio State Buckeyes’ unit has been so bad that Chris Holtmann’s future is up in the air.

Despite the lackluster defenses taking the court in this game, both programs have a star guard and multiple reliable scorers. The offensive talent outweighs these defenses by a mile, and that’s why the Over looks appetizing with the game total set at just 139.

Before Greg Gard’s program lost four in a row and five of its last eight, lead guard AJ Storr was poised to become a household name in March. Despite the team underperforming in February, Storr is still one of the most electric scorers in the Big Ten.

Behind Storr, the Badgers are scoring 74.3 points per game and rank 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency, even with Wisconsin having played the second-toughest defensive schedule in the country. As a team, Gard’s program is shooting 46.4% from the floor, 53.1% from two, 34.1% from three, and 76.3% from the free throw line.

While the Badgers aren’t going to blow anyone away with their shooting, they’re solid across the board with Storr’s athleticism and ability to attack the rim being the team’s offensive X-factor. He leads the team with 16.4 points per game, but in classic Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers have two reliable big men in Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl.

Wahl, a 6-foot-9 power forward, and Crowl, a 7-foot center, are averaging a combined 22.2 points per game and both are shooting over 57% from two. Surrounding those three are shooters in Max Klesmit, John Blackwell, and Chucky Hepburn, who shoot a combined 36.6% from three on nine attempts per game.

Those three, particularly Klesmit (shooting 40.6% from deep), will really give this Buckeyes defense problems. Ohio State is one of the worst 3-point defending teams in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 36% from behind the arc.

The Buckeyes allow 70 points per game and the defense ranks 126th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has been tumbling down those rankings all season. Ohio State is 4-9 and allowing 76.5 points per game in Big Ten games this year. Holtmann’s team has held just one Big Ten opponent below 71 points this season.

What’s helped the Buckeyes stay afloat and somewhat competitive in conference has been its offense. Ohio State is scoring 75.3 points per game and ranks 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency behind its big three scorers.

Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Jamison Battle are each scoring over 14 points per game and all three have been willing 3-point shooters this season. That will come in handy against a Badgers defense that’s 339th out of 362 teams when it comes to defending the deep ball.

The Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot 36.6% from three and Thornton, Gayle Jr., and Battle are averaging a combined 5.4 treys per game on 14.7 attempts (36.7%). Wisconsin has also been putting opponents on the free throw line frequently this season with 17 attempts per game, and the Buckeyes are 31st in the country in free throw percentage at 76.3%. 

While Wisconsin does rank 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency, it clearly has some flaws on that end of the court that have been exposed in recent games. Wisconsin is allowing just 68.4 points per game this season, but over its last four games it’s allowed 76.2 points per game.

The Badgers lost all four of those contests, with the last two coming against the Michigan Wolverines and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. One of these teams will end its losing streak at the Kohl Center, and it’s going to take plenty of points to do it.

My best bet: Over 139 (-110 at bet365)

Ohio State vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Over 139.5

Jamison Battle Over 13.5 points

AJ Storr Over 17.5 points

This season, Jamison Battle has been the best 3-point shooter for the Ohio State Buckeyes by far. The Minnesota transfer is hitting 43.2% of his shots from behind the arc and taking 6.2 per game. 

Against a Wisconsin defense that struggles to defend the deep-ball, he has a perfect matchup to get to 14 points. Battle is averaging 14.2 per game this season and dropped 18 the last time these two teams played. He’s had over 14 in three of his last four games and has averaged 16.2 over that stretch.

Like Battle, Storr has a nice matchup against a Buckeyes defense that can’t seem to slow down dynamic backcourts this season. While the Badgers have struggled in recent games, Storr has remained a constant threat on offense. He’s had at least 18 points in three of his last five and is averaging 20.8 points per game in those five.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Ohio State vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

With the Buckeyes’ inability to win on the road the last two seasons, the Badgers opened between 7.5 and 9.5-point home favorites. Most books have come up to 9 or 9.5, with FanDuel offering the Buckeyes +8.5 at -102.

Both programs have struggled ATS this season with Wisconsin being just 11-12-1 overall and 1-6-1 in its last eight. The Buckeyes have been even worse at 8-15-1, including 3-10 in the Big Ten.

The game total opened between 139.5 and 140.5 with most books coming down to 139. The Badgers are 14-10 betting the Over this season and 9-4 in the Big Ten. Ohio State is also 14-10 betting the Over and 5-1 in its last six. 

Ohio State vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 34 games (+1.50 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin.

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Ohio State vs Wisconsin game info

Location: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
Date: Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock

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