Missouri vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Don’t Expect a Repeat Performance From Tigers

The second game of the quarterfinal round of the 2023 SEC Tournament will see the Tennessee Volunteers face off against the Missouri Tigers at Bridgestone Arena this afternoon.

Tennessee controlled their Thursday matchup against Mississippi with a comfortable 70-55 win. However, the Volunteers lost to Missouri in their lone matchup this season. Missouri finished the regular season at 23-8 overall and 11-7 in SEC play. The Tigers also won four consecutive games to end the regular season.

Will Tennessee be able to avenge its regular season loss? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Missouri Tigers on March 10.

Missouri vs Tennessee best odds

Missouri vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Tennessee absolutely smashed Mississippi on the boards on Thursday, and the Vols also held to Rebels to just 37.7% shooting from the field. They will get a similar opportunity to dominate the glass on Friday against Missouri.

The Tigers rank 353rd in rebounding with 30.5 boards per game and also allow 37.3 per contest. In their February 11 matchup with Tennessee, the Vols out-rebounded Missouri 34-22. That was not an anomaly for Tennessee either.

The Vols average 38.9 rebounds per game (19th) and only allow their opponents to get 32.3 boards per contest (73rd). Despite the Tennessee defense allowing 86 points, that was the only game all year where the Vols allowed an opponent to put up 80+. 

Missouri shot an astounding 52.6% from the field and an even better 53.8% from 3-point range in that game. In the regular season, Tennessee only allowed its opponents to shoot 36.4% from the field and 25.5% from downtown. 

While the Tigers were the only team to shoot above 49.1% from the field against the Volunteers this year, it's important to not get caught up and be a prisoner of the moment. The idea that Missouri will be able to replicate that same performance is extremely unlikely.

It's not often that a team getting the double bye in the SEC Tournament is the underdog. However, Tennessee is just the better team and I'm taking the Vols to turn things around defensively here. 

My best bet: Tennessee -5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Missouri vs Tennessee spread analysis

Missouri went 2-0 in neutral site games this season, with wins over Central Florida and Illinois. However, the Tigers' only road win over a team that is NCAA tournament-worthy came against this Tennessee team.

While the Vols are obviously known for their defense, they have quietly scored 70+ points in four consecutive games and put up 85 against the Tigers in their first matchup of the season. 

The Tigers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday games. Missouri has never made the semifinals of the SEC tournament since its induction to the conference in 2013.

Let’s not look at one performance this season against this Tennessee team and it'll be replicated. It is extremely unlikely that Missouri will even get to 75 points this afternoon. 

Take the Volunteers here in Nashville to advance to the semis.

Missouri vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The first matchup went way Over the total of 142 as both teams finished in the 80s. However, I already mentioned how that game was an anomaly and that things are likely to change this time around. I believe that will also happen in terms of the total.

The Under is 4-1 in the Vols' last five games following a win and 4-1 in their last five neutral site games. The Under is also 6-1 in the Tigers' last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Missouri vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3-1 in the Volunteers' last 11 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Tennessee.

Missouri vs Tennessee game info

Missouri vs Tennessee key injuries

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