Missouri vs Mississippi SEC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Tigers Hunt Down Rebels

The SEC tournament tips off on Wednesday with No. 13 seed Mississippi Rebels taking on the No. 12 seed Missouri Tigers at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Mizzou won both meetings in the head-to-head during the regular season but oddsmakers are expecting a different result in the conference tournament, with college basketball betting lines opening with the Rebels as 3.5-point favorites.

Here are our best free Mississippi vs. Missouri picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 9, with tipoff at 6 p.m. ET.

Missouri vs Mississippi odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line for this game opened with the Rebels installed as 3.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 131.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Missouri vs Mississippi predictions

• Prediction: Missouri +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 131.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Missouri ML (+138)

Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Missouri vs Mississippi game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network

Missouri at Mississippi betting preview

Injuries

Missouri: Daeshun Ruffin PG (Out).
Mississippi: Anton Brookshire G (Out), Jordan Wilmore F (Out), Yaya Keita F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Missouri is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games versus a team with a losing record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Mississippi.

Missouri vs Mississippi picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Both of these teams come stumbling into the conference tournament with Mississippi losing eight of it's last nine games (going 4-5 against the spread during that span) and Missouri dropping six of its previous seven (3-4 ATS) — with both wins not coincidently coming against the pathetic Georgia Bulldogs. 

Each SEC program has been dreadful offensively. The Rebels are 202nd in the country in offensive efficiency (98.7 points per 100 possessions) while the Tigers rank just outside the Top 300 with 93.2 points per 100 possessions. 

That said, the Rebels offense suffered a big blow at the start of February when it lost point guard Daeshun Ruffin who was leading the team with 3.4 assists per game and was second with 12.6 points per game.

The Tigers at least have a healthy rotation led by Kobe Brown who was a second-team All-Conference selection after pacing Mizzou with 12.6 points per game, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game. 

The Tigers also had uncharacteristically high scoring success against the Rebels this season, torching them 78-53 on the road in January when they shot 62.7% from the floor. They followed up on that with a 74-68 win at home on February 12 when they boasted a 53.8 FG%.

It's tough to trust the Rebels as favorites in this one, especially when you consider that the Tigers seem to have their number this season.

While Mizzou has been turning the ball over way too much, they committed fewer mistakes against Mississippi and should find it easier to pass the ball with Ruffin and his tenacious pressure out of action. 

Prediction: Missouri +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While the Tigers shot the ball extremely well against the Rebels (especially from 3-point range), it's hard not to see some regression in that area given that they shot just 42.3% from the field over the entire season.

These were the two lowest-scoring teams in the conference with Mizzou averaging 65.2 ppg and Mississippi putting up 68.4 ppg. And they both play at a sluggish pace with the Tigers 270th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and the Rebels ranking 282nd.

Prediction: Under 131.5 (-110)

Best bet

It's a common saying that it's difficult to beat a team three times in a season but the data suggests that old adage is more myth than fact. Logically, if you already beat a team twice (once at home and once on the road) you're probably the better side.

When it comes to analytics, Mississippi has a small edge but the Rebels have made a bad habit out of losing close contests this season. And with the Tigers owning the advantage on the boards and at the charity stripe, there's definitely value in backing them to pull out the victory as a +138 underdog. 

Pick: Missouri ML (+138)

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