College basketball betting has been a bit topsy-turvy this season, with perennial powerhouses like Duke, Michigan State and Kentucky struggling to pick up wins.
Fading those programs has been a very profitable play for NCAA bettors who will get another chance to do just that on Tuesday night with the Michigan State Spartans heading to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers.
Oddsmakers certainly aren't overestimating MSU anymore, installing them as 6-point road underdogs for this contest. Here are our best free Michigan State vs Purdue picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 16, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers betting preview
Injuries
Michigan State: Rocket Watts G (Probable), Foster Loyer G (Questionable).
Purdue: Emmanuel Duwuona C (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Spartans are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Purdue 6.5-point chalk at the outset Monday afternoon and is down a point to -5.5 as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Ticket count is just above 2/1 on the Boilermakers and money a shade below 2/1 on Purdue. The total opened 134.5, stretched to 136.5 a couple of times and is now 136, with 55 percent of tickets on the Over and 54 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing 88-58 loss at home to Iowa. The Spartans are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games which includes a 55-54 loss to the Boilermakers in East Lansing.
The Spartans are just 2-13 ATS in their previous 15 contests and it has become apparent that beating Duke at the beginning of the season doesn't count for much, since the Blue Devils also suck.
MSU has been brutal on the offensive end of the floor, ranking 199th in the nation in points per 100 possessions, while sitting outside the Top 250 schools in field goal percentage at just 42.1 percent.
The Spartans shooting percentage falls to an even uglier 37 percent on the road, which is bad news against a Purdue squad that holds foes to a FG percentage of 39.6 at Mackey Arena.
The Boilermakers boast an average scoring margin of plus-9.7 points per game at home, while the Spartans have a woeful scoring margin of minus-11.3 ppg on the road. Keep fading the Spartans and take the home side.
PREDICTION: Purdue -6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
These sides combined for just 109 points when they met up on January 8. The Spartans have been particularly poor on offense in conference play, averaging just 63.7 ppg on 38 percent shooting.
That said, Tom Izzo's squad has been pretty good on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 39th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Purdue is even higher in that category, ranking 27th.
However, the Boilermakers aren't exactly filling up the bucket, averaging a modest 67.8 ppg on 42.8 percent shooting in Big Ten action. They also play at a very slow tempo, ranking outside the Top 300 schools in the country in possessions per game.
With MSU 7-1 to the Under in its last eight games, go against the line movement and take the Under tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 136.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs Purdue betting card
- Purdue -6 (-110)
- Under 136.5 (-110)
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