Michigan State vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Zags Will Dominate Inside

The Armed Forces Classic takes place on Friday afternoon between the Michigan State Spartans and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This marquee matchup between college basketball bluebloods will take place aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in San Diego Bay.

Oddsmakers expect No. 2 Gonzaga to roll in this one, with unranked MSU coming in as an 11.5-point underdog. Here are my best college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Gonzaga on November 11.

Michigan State vs Gonzaga best odds

Michigan State vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

11.5 points seems like a lot to spot a well-coached Spartans team that's just outside the Top 25 on neutral ground. That said, this matchup and environment favor the Zags in this spot. 

While teams that rely on outside shooting can be heavily affected by gusts of wind onboard an air carrier, the Zags do an excellent job of cutting to the hoop and getting buckets inside.

The Spartans have a solid squad this year, but they also have plenty of new faces and nowhere near as much depth as Gonzaga. They also lack star power and haven't had a real impact player since Cassius Winston, while the Zags have the Wooden Award favorite in Drew Timme, who has averaged 18.7 ppg on 62% shooting over the last two years. 

Not only is Gonzaga highly efficient at scoring inside the paint, but that might be where Michigan State's biggest weakness is. Junior Mady Sissoko is starting at center after failing to impress in his first two seasons, and Tom Izzo will likely go small and send him to the bench in crunch time.

This is a Spartans team that all too often goes into scoring droughts, and we saw that in their season opener on Monday against tiny Northern Arizona. When they go cold from the field today, the Zags will go on runs and easily separate on the scoreboard. 

My best bet: Gonzaga -11.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Michigan State vs Gonzaga spread analysis

The Spartans have had one of the most successful programs in college hoops this century but are coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons where they finished unranked and didn't make it past the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Michigan State lost its three top scorers from a year ago, but two other starters in guard Tyson Walker and power forward Joey Hauser return. Forward Malik Hall and point guard A.J. Hoggard averaged more than 20 minutes per game off the bench last year and move into the starting lineup, where they should thrive.

The Spartans beat the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 73-55 in their first game of the season. They failed to cover the spread as 20-point home faves but jumped out to an impressive 24-8 lead in the early going before their offense stalled. 

The Zags have posted a dominant 90-7 record over the last three years. Although they have yet to win a title, they finished at No. 1 or No. 2 in the AP poll by the end of each regular season. 

They rolled to a 104-63 win against North Florida in their season opener, covering the massive 30-point spread thanks to a run in the first half that saw them score 24 unanswered points. 

The Zags return three starters and sixth-man Anton Watson from a year ago, with Timme as the biggest name of the bunch. They also added a couple of key transfers in center Efton Reid III and guard Malachi Smith.

Their rotation is rounded out by a pair of former five-star recruits in Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis, who should be in line for more playing time in their sophomore seasons. That gives head coach Mark Few loads of talent, balance, and depth. 

Michigan State vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis

The Zags have been an offensive juggernaut for years. Not only are they very efficient from the field, but they also tend to play at a very fast pace which leads to plenty of high-scoring contests. 

That said, playing at a neutral site on board a naval ship can be very tricky for shooters who are used to far different sightlines inside of arenas. In addition, the San Diego Bay can be a windy area which can also affect outside shots. 

The Spartans hit just 45% of their shots against the Lumberjacks and could have an even tougher time against a Bulldogs squad that plays harder on defense than often given credit for. 

Michigan State vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

The Over is 7-2 in Michigan State's last nine games while also cashing in four of Gonzaga's previous five contests. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Gonzaga.

Michigan State vs Gonzaga game info

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