We started the NCAA Tournament with 68 teams hoping for a shot at their one shining moment. Tonight will leave only two teams standing.
There is a path for both underdogs to reach the national championship, and we break down how UConn and Arizona can get there in my top March Madness picks and upset predictions for the Final Four.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks for the Final Four
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UConn
Arizona
No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 UConn
Saturday @ 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
As Illinois has defended this year, teams have found success utilizing the bigs in cut-and-roll situations. The Fighting Illini rank in the 36th percentile against big cut-and-roll sets, with opponents averaging 1.07 points per possession.
UConn not only thrives in those situations but also uses them as a primary offensive attack. The Huskies average 1.18 ppp while running those sets at a 12% rate, and their bigs are able to both attack the rim and hit the mid-range jumper at a high rate.
Tarris Reed Jr. didn’t play much in the first meeting in November and will need to have another huge game, as he did against Duke. His size can give Illinois some issues inside.
The Huskies will also need to defend the perimeter as they did in the first meeting, where Illinois shot just 6-for-29 from outside the arc. Keaton Wagler scored just three points in that game, but played just 14 minutes.
Illinois made just three treys in 17 attempts against Iowa. If that happens again here, the Huskies could be playing for a National Championship once again.
No. 1 Michigan vs No. 1 Arizona
Saturday @ 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
The spread is indicative of just how closely matched these two teams are. Michigan and Arizona have been the two best teams in the entire tournament, and it’s a bit unfair that this is a semifinal game.
And while it’s not really an “upset” if either team wins, Arizona is the moneyline underdog. Controlling the tempo would play a pivotal role in helping the Wildcats get the win.
Michigan wants to get up and down, utilizing a transition offense that accounts for 1.34 ppp. Arizona ranks in the Top 10 at limiting points in those situations.
The Wildcats run a much slower offense, and they don’t shoot well from outside. The last thing they want is a high-tempo affair. So much of their success comes inside, either from posting up or getting second-chance points.
Duke beat Michigan in February on the back of a 39.4% offensive rebound rate. Arizona has the personnel to replicate that success, and doing so likely puts the Wildcats just one game away from a title.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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