One game is all that remains between eight programs and a spot in the 2026 Final Four in Indianapolis.
Upsets are what make March Madness so entertaining, but they become fewer and farther between as we reach the final stages of the tournament.
Here are my top March Madness picks and upset predictions for the Elite Eight.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks for the Elite Eight
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Iowa moneyline
UConn moneyline 
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 3 Illinois
South Region, Saturday @ 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Iowa has a chance to reach the Final Four as a nine seed, but it will need to play a near-perfect game to beat Illinois.
That starts with making shots. The Hawkeyes were blitzed early in their 75-69 defeat to the Fighting Illini in early January. They trailed 21-5 nearly midway through the first half, and made just 10 of 29 attempts before halftime.
Iowa won’t be able to rely on getting to the charity stripe against an Illinois team that fouls at the lowest rate of any program this season. What the Hawkeyes can do is look for points off turnovers, as they did in the first meeting when they scored 11 fast-break points and 13 points from turnovers.
Illinois had an 18.2% turnover rate in that contest, its highest of any game since the start of 2026. The Illini also finished with an offensive rebounding rate of just 30%. Iowa must limit those opportunities, as the Illini rank in the 99th percentile in points from rebound and scramble situations.
Bennett Stirtz scored just 12 points and sat for seven key minutes in the second half as he battled foul trouble. The Hawkeyes need him on the court and producing at a high level to offset Keaton Wagler.
If the Hawkeyes can control tempo, control the glass, and generate easy points off turnovers, they will crash the Final Four.
No. 2 UConn vs No. 1 Duke
East Region, Sunday @ 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Duke survived against Siena by dominating the offensive glass in the second half, and they snuck past St. John’s in the Sweet 16 in much the same fashion.
The Blue Devils were able to turn those opportunities into second-chance points as they got easy baskets near the rim. UConn ranks in the 95th percentile at limiting rebound and scramble points, in large part because of the defensive ability of Tarris Reed Jr.
Caleb Foster's return was massive for Duke, but you have to wonder how his foot will hold up playing a second game in under 48 hours, especially with Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball hounding him at every turn. That’s on top of Patrick Ngongba II still being clearly hampered by his foot injury.
Duke’s defense in this tournament has been so poor at times that it has had to revert to a zone to get stops. UConn can exploit that, ranking in the 98th percentile in points per mid-range attempt and shooting 43.2% in those situations. The Huskies can also hurt the zone on the glass, sitting 14th in offensive rebound rate since March 1.
If the Blue Devils have another outing where they’re turning it over and struggling to defend, the Huskies will reach another Final Four.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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