The 2026 March Madness Sweet 16 tips off Thursday with four strong matchups featuring some of the most efficient teams against top competition in college basketball.
This slate isn’t about laying big favorites. Two underdogs have the numbers and the matchups to win outright, and that’s where the value is.
Read on for my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 26.
March Madness moneyline picks on Thursday, March 26
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Texasvs  Purdue |
-320 |
 Iowavs  Nebraska |
+110 |
 Arkansasvs  Arizona |
-360 |
 Illinoisvs  Houston |
+130 |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Sweet 16 moneyline picks for Thursday
No. 11 Texas vs No. 2 Purdue: Purdue (-320)
The Purdue Boilermakers bring a massive statistical edge into this matchup, ranking as the nation’s best in offensive efficiency (135.3) while also defending at a high level.
The Texas Longhorns, by comparison, are far less efficient defensively and don’t match Purdue’s veteran-led scoring consistency.
Texas can compete physically, but Purdue’s experience, elite shot-making, and Top 40 KenPom defense should control the game and carry them into the Elite Eight.
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 4 Nebraska: Iowa (+110)
The Iowa Hawkeyes have consistently played Nebraska tough, going 7–3 straight up in the last 10 meetings.
Statistically, Iowa holds an edge on the offensive glass, grabbing 28.2% of its misses compared to Nebraska’s 24.7%, creating vital extra chances in a defensive game.
With both teams boasting elite defenses, Iowa’s second-chance opportunities and late-game execution offer value in a near pick ’em.
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No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 1 Arizona: Arizona (-360)
The Arizona Wildcats rank among the nation’s best on both ends with elite offensive efficiency (132.6) and a top-tier defense (92.2) against the top 25.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have the shot-making to create runs, but their Top 60 KenPom-rated defensive efficiency will struggle to defend the Wildcats.
Arkansas can hang around, but Arizona’s overall game and balance make it the more reliable side and the better bet to advance.
No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 Houston: Illinois (+130)
The Illinois Fighting Illini bring the offensive edge into this matchup, posting a 131.6 efficiency with strong shot-making and elite offensive rebounding (39.2%).
The Houston Cougars are average on the defensive glass and struggle at the line on both ends, ranking near the bottom of the Big 12 in free-throw rate offensively (27.4) while allowing a conference-worst 39.4.
Illinois’ edge at the charity stripe and offensive glass makes them a good underdog bet to make.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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