Let the Madness begin.
We have a massive, 16-game Thursday March Madness slate before us, and some interesting matchups that hopefully don’t bust our bankrolls.
There are some overwhelming favorites on the board, but I’ve also found four possible Thursday March Madness upsets for you to consider as well.
Read on for my college basketball predictions and March Madness picks for Thursday, March 19.
March Madness moneyline picks on Thursday, March 19
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 TCU vs  Ohio State |
+115 |
 Troy vs  Nebraska |
-1000 |
 South Florida vs  Louisville |
+180 |
 High Point vs  Wisconsin |
-500 |
 Siena vs  Duke |
-25000 |
 McNeese State vs  Vanderbilt |
-650 |
 North Dakota State vs  Michigan State |
-2000 |
 Hawaii vs  Arkansas |
-1300 |
 VCU vs  North Carolina |
+120 |
 Howard vs  Michigan |
-100000 |
 Texas vs  BYU |
-140 |
 Texas A&M vs  Saint Mary's |
+130 |
 Penn vs  Illinois |
-8000 |
 Saint Louis vs  Georgia |
-140 |
 Kennesaw State vs  Gonzaga |
-4000 |
 Idaho vs  Houston |
-8000 |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Round 1 moneyline picks for Thursday
No. 9 TCU vs No. 8 Ohio State: TCU (+115)
Turnovers and rebounding win tournament games, and the TCU Horned Frogs are better at both than the Ohio State Buckeyes are. TCU forces mistakes and crashes the offensive glass, neutralizing Ohio State’s high-powered offense. That will be enough for the Horned Frogs to pull off the upset.
No. 13 Troy vs No. 4 Nebraska: Nebraska (-1000)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers advance because of their elite defense, while their shooting is due for positive regression. Nebraska shoots 35% from three but has struggled recently. However, the Troy Trojans won’t easily stop the long-range avalanche. Nebraska hunkers down on defense and finds enough offense to pull away.
No. 11 South Florida vs No. 6 Louisville: South Florida (+180)
This will be a fast-paced game, and the South Florida Bulls average 19 points off turnovers, facing a Louisville Cardinals team that commits 11+ per game. The Bulls’ 3-point defense is strong enough to limit Louisville’s perimeter attack to win as underdogs.
No. 12 High Point vs No. 5 Wisconsin: Wisconsin (-500)
The High Point Panthers thrive on 21 points per game off turnovers, but the Wisconsin Badgers led the Big Ten in ball security and allowed just 10 points per game off turnovers. Without those transition buckets, High Point is forced into the half-court, where Wisconsin completely smothers it.
No. 16 Siena vs No. 1 Duke: Duke (-25000)
The Siena Saints shoot just 30% from three and lack the offensive depth to thwart the Duke Blue Devils' second-best defense. Duke’s overwhelming defensive pressure and fourth-most-efficient offense will be too much for the young Saints to deal with.
No. 12 McNeese State vs No. 5 Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt (-650)
The Vanderbilt Commodores win because they protect the ball against the McNeese Cowboys' relentless pressure. Vanderbilt’s 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio limits mistakes, while McNeese relies on 20 points per game off turnovers. Without those transition buckets, McNeese won’t get enough stops to keep up against an elite Commodores offense.
No. 14 North Dakota State vs No. 3 Michigan State: Michigan State (-2000)
The North Dakota State Bisons' biggest strength is their 11.6 offensive rebounds per game. The Michigan State Spartans have allowed more than 10 offensive boards just three times all season. North Dakota State simply won’t generate enough offense against a stout Spartans defense.
No. 13 Hawaii vs No. 5 Arkansas: Arkansas (-1300)
The Arkansas Razorbacks and Darius Acuff protect the ball at an elite level, while the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors allow 14 points per game off turnovers. With Acuff coming off a 30 PPG SEC Tournament run, those extra possessions should give the Razorbacks a clear path to control this game.
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No. 11 VCU vs No. 6 North Carolina: VCU (+120)
The VCU Rams win games because they can shoot and create chaos. Without Caleb Wilson, the North Carolina Tar Heels' turnovers have spiked, and that plays directly into VCU’s pressure defense and 14 PPG from turnovers. If the Rams force mistakes and turn them into points, they have a good chance to upset North Carolina.
No. 16 Howard vs No. 1 Michigan: Michigan (-100000)
The Michigan Wolverines' offense and top-rated defense are too efficient for the Howard Bison to handle. Michigan ranks among the nation’s best in offensive and defensive efficiency, while the Bison will struggle mightily on both ends of the floor against the Wolverines size and depth. Don't overthink it.
No. 11 Texas vs No. 6 BYU: BYU (-140)
The BYU Cougars win because AJ Dybantsa takes over. With Richie Saunders out, BYU leans on its freshman star, and Dybantsa has the scoring ability to carry the offense. Against a good but not dominant Texas Longhorns defense, his overall play will be enough to push the Cougars through.
No. 10 Texas A&M vs No. 7 Saint Mary's: Texas A&M (+130)
The Texas A&M Aggies use pressure to create easy offense. The Aggies average 17 points per game off turnovers, while the Saint Mary’s Gaels allow 17.6. Saint Mary’s limits 3-point shooting, but its turnover issues give the Aggies a good opportunity to stun the Gaels.
No. 14 Penn vs No. 3 Illinois: Illinois (-8000)
The Illinois Fighting Illini led the Big Ten in offensive rebounding and stretched defenses with a consistent 3-point shooting barrage. The Penn Quakers lack the size to compete on the glass and don’t have the offensive firepower to hurt the Big Ten's fourth-ranked defense.
No. 9 Saint Louis vs No. 8 Georgia: Georgia (-140)
The Georgia Bulldogs own a +3.1 turnover margin and score 18 points per game off mistakes, while the Saint Louis Billikens allow nearly 14 PPG from their own. Saint Louis boasts a terrific defense, but Georgia’s offense will lead it to victory.
No. 9 Kennesaw State vs No. 3 Gonzaga: Gonzaga (-4000)
The Gonzaga Bulldogs' opportunistic defense turns mistakes into points, averaging 18.5 points per game off turnovers. Meanwhile, the Kennesaw State Owls play fast and loose, giving up nearly 13 points from turnovers. That gap gives the Bulldogs a clear path to victory.
No. 15 Idaho vs No. 2 Houston: Houston (-8000)
The Houston Cougars' elite defense will overwhelm the Idaho Vandals, while freshman guard Kingston Flemings gives the Cougars the offensive spark. The Vandals can shoot, but Houston’s experience and depth take away clean looks and should control the game from start to finish.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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