Like Dolly Parton on a pogo stick, the 2026 NCAA Tournament is very top-heavy.
If the sky-rocketing analytics around this year’s higher seeds weren’t evidence enough, just check out the March Madness point spreads. There will be 19 double-digit favorites in the opening 32 games of the Big Dance.
What that means is that teams seeded No. 1 through No. 4 will cruise through to the second week of the tournament, while chaos will ensue in the mushy middle of the bracket.
My March Madness bracket predictions follow that path, advancing the chalkiest of the chalk while calling a handful of upsets early on. But when it comes down to business, the best of the best ascend to Indianapolis.
Jason Logan's March Madness Bracket for 2026
My best March Madness bracket picks
My Final Four has three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 heading to Indy, with Iowa State serving as the de facto Cinderella.
The Duke Blue Devils will take down the defending champion Florida Gators on one side of the semifinals, while the Arizona Wildcats edge the Iowa State Cyclones in the other.
My National Championship sees Arizona get the better of Duke. The Blue Devils are already dealing with health issues, and the grind of the NCAA games and travel could compound things.
- Round 1 Upsets: 6
- Sweet 16 Cinderallas: 2
No. 11 VCU
No. 14 Akron - Final Four:
No. 1 Duke vs No. 1 Florida
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Iowa State - National Championship
No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Duke
East Region picks
There’s no denying Duke, even in what looks like the “Region of Death”. The Blue Devils are on another level, with No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Michigan State well off that pace. A potential run-in with No. 4 Kansas in the Sweet 16 should be fun.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Duke over Siena |
| Round of 64 | TCU over Ohio State |
| Round of 64 | St. John's over Northern Iowa |
| Round of 64 | Kansas over Cal Baptist |
| Round of 64 | Louisville over South Florida |
| Round of 64 | Michigan State over North Dakota State |
| Round of 64 | UCLA over UCF |
| Round of 64 | UConn over Furman |
| Round of 32 | Duke over TCU |
| Round of 32 | Kansas over St. John's |
| Round of 32 | Louisville over Michigan State |
| Round of 32 | UCLA over UConn |
| Sweet 16 | Duke over Kansas |
| Sweet 16 | UCLA over Louisville |
| Elite Eight | Duke over UCLA |
Midwest Region picks
Michigan is the only No. 1 seed I predict won’t make the trip to Indianapolis. The Wolverines were the most consistent team in an inconsistent Big Ten, and the offense was disjointed in the Big Ten tournament, which UM didn’t win. No. 2
Iowa State is battle-tested, both in non-conference competition and in Big 12 play.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Michigan over UMBC/Howard |
| Round of 64 | Saint Louis over Georgia |
| Round of 64 | Akron over Texas Tech |
| Round of 64 | Alabama over Hofstra |
| Round of 64 | Tennessee over Miami (OH)/SMU |
| Round of 64 | Virginia over Wright State |
| Round of 64 | Santa Clara over Kentucky |
| Round of 64 | Iowa State over Tennessee State |
| Round of 32 | Michigan Over Saint Louis |
| Round of 32 | Akron over Alabama |
| Round of 32 | Tennessee over Virginia |
| Round of 32 | Iowa State over Santa Clara |
| Sweet 16 | Michigan over Akron |
| Sweet 16 | Iowa State over Tennessee |
| Elite Eight | Iowa State Over Michigan |
South Region picks
We get a rematch of last year’s title game in the Elite Eight with Florida bouncing Houston once again. Behind those two programs, the rest of this region is weak. No. 3 Illinois, No. 4 Nebraska, and No. 5 Vanderbilt all run the risk of not seeing the second week of the tournament.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Florida over PV A&M/Lehigh |
| Round of 64 | Clemson over Iowa |
| Round of 64 | Vanderbilt over McNeese |
| Round of 64 | Troy over Nebraska |
| Round of 64 | VCU over North Carolina |
| Round of 64 | Illinois over Penn |
| Round of 64 | Saint Mary's over Texas A&M |
| Round of 64 | Houston over Idaho |
| Round of 32 | Florida over Clemson |
| Round of 32 | Vanderbilt over Troy |
| Round of 32 | VCU over Illinois |
| Round of 32 | Houston over Saint Mary's |
| Sweet 16 | Vanderbilt over Florida |
| Sweet 16 | Houston over VCU |
| Elite Eight | Florida over Houston |
West Region picks
Arizona advances but doesn’t have a smooth ride to the Final Four. There are booby traps abound for the Wildcats. You have Purdue and Arkansas, who are riding momentum into March Madness, and a Gonzaga program that knows how to win come tourney time.
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Round of 64 | Arizona over LIU |
| Round of 64 | Utah St over Villanova |
| Round of 64 | Wisconsin over High Point |
| Round of 64 | Arkansas over Hawaii |
| Round of 64 | BYU over Texas/NC St |
| Round of 64 | Gonzaga over Kennesaw St |
| Round of 64 | Miami (FL) over Missouri |
| Round of 64 | Purdue over Queens |
| Round of 32 | Arizona over Utah St |
| Round of 32 | Arkansas over Wisconsin |
| Round of 32 | BYU over Gonzaga |
| Round of 32 | Purdue over Miami (FL) |
| Sweet 16 | Arizona over Arkansas |
| Sweet 16 | Purdue over BYU |
| Elite Eight | Arizona over Purdue |
Final Four and National Championship predictions
| Round | Pick |
|---|---|
| Final Four | Arizona over Iowa State |
| Final Four | Duke over Florida |
| National Championship | Arizona over Duke |
