The Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday with four tantalizing matchups, providing more opportunities for bettors to delight.
Let’s break down all four matchups from a betting perspective. Here are my favorite March Madness picks against the spread (ATS) for each game on Thursday, March 26.
March Madness picks against the spread for Thursday, March 26
Texas
Iowa
Arkansas
HoustonLines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Sweet 16 ATS picks for Thursday
No. 11 Texas vs No. 2 Purdue: 
Purdue -7
The Texas Longhorns are a surprise Sweet 16 team due in part to their Round 1 and Round 2 opponents combining to shoot 8-for-38 (21%) from three. That good fortune likely comes to an end against the nation’s most efficient offense.
Defensively, the Purdue Boilermakers have size in the paint, force teams to the 3-point line, and avoid fouls. That makes this a plus matchup against a Texas team featuring the 7-foot Matas Vokietaitis that is loath to attempt triples and typically lives at the line.
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 4 Nebraska: 
Nebraska -1.5
Give Ben McCollum his due, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers have been the better team this season. Fred Hoiberg’s team ranks 13th in KenPom and is 16-6 in Quad-1 and Quad-2 games, whereas the Iowa Hawkeyes are 22nd in KenPom and went 11-10 against the top two quadrants.
The win over Florida was obviously nice, but questions remain about Iowa’s overall talent level outside of Bennett Stirtz, its performance outside its home court (323rd in away-from-home grade, per Haslametrics), and its consistent mettle against quality competition (299th in paper tiger factor).
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No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 1 Arizona: 
Arizona -7.5
The Arizona Wildcats are a wagon, and they should be able to execute their game plan against a very talented — but also flawed — Arkansas Razorbacks team.
John Calipari’s squad is porous defensively and has a particular weakness inside the ark (301st in 2-point defense, 54%), a likely death-spell against an Arizona offense that makes the second-most twos per game (24.4).
No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 Houston: 
Illinois +3
To my eyes, this is the most fascinating handicap of any Sweet 16 matchup. It hasn’t come back to bite the Houston Cougars yet, but the offense can get stagnant, doesn’t get to the stripe (351st in free throw rate), and isn’t overly efficient (134th in effective field goal percentage).
Advantage to the Illinois Fighting Illini, who rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and have the combination of ball-handling, passing, and 1-on-1 scoring threats that have typically been able to beat this Kelvin Sampson defense.
Brad Underwood’s squad has only lost three games in regulation by 4+ points all season; all three came against opponents still alive in this tournament, and only one (vs. Michigan) has occurred in the last four months.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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