Sixteen more games get underway from four different host sites on Friday as March Madness continues with full force.
Looking to pick a winner against the spread for these contests? I’ve got you covered with a look at every matchup on the board.
See why I'm laying the points with Virginia and more in my March Madness picks against the spread for Friday’s Round of 64 games.
March Madness picks against the spread for Friday, March 20
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Santa Clara vs  Kentucky |
+3 |
 Akron vs  Texas Tech |
+7.5 |
 LIU vs  Arizona |
-30.5 |
 Wright State vs  Virginia |
-18.5 |
 Tennessee State vs  Iowa State |
-23.5 |
 Hofstra vs  Alabama |
+11.5 |
 Utah State vs  Villanova |
-1.5 |
 Miami (OH) vs  Tennessee |
+10.5 |
 Iowa vs  Clemson |
+2 |
 Northern Iowa vs  St. John's |
+9.5 |
 UCF vs  UCLA |
-5.5 |
 Queens University vs  Purdue |
-25.5 |
 Prairie View A&M vs  Florida |
+35.5 |
 California Baptist vs  Kansas |
+14.5 |
 Furman vs  UConn |
-20.5 |
 Missouri vs  Miami |
-2 |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Round 1 ATS picks for Friday
No. 10 Santa Clara vs No. 7 Kentucky: Santa Clara +3
There isn’t much separating these teams over the last two months — the Santa Clara Broncos rank 31st in BartTorvik since January 20, while the Kentucky Wildcats are only one spot ahead at 30th. The Wildcats have been poor when not in Lexington, ranking 355th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home grade and 362nd in Paper Tiger Factor.
No. 12 Akron vs No. 5 Texas Tech: Akron +7.5
In a game with a ton of shooting variance where both teams will chuck threes with reckless abandon, I’d rather catch 7.5 points than lay them. The Akron Zips start five seniors and were seemingly built for March. The Texas Tech Red Raiders lost three straight to end the regular season, going 0-3 ATS in that span.
No. 16 LIU vs No. 1 Arizona: Arizona -30.5
The LIU Sharks rank outside BartTorvik’s Top 250 over the last two months and should get boat raced by an Arizona Wildcats team with serious aspirations to cut down the nets. It’s a nightmare matchup for the Sharks, who want to score via breakaways and at the rim. Neither will be available in the slightest against the Wildcats, who will also score at will.
No. 14 Wright State vs No. 3 Virginia: Virginia -18.5
The Virginia Cavaliers showed no mercy against overmatched opponents, winning six different non-conference games by 24 or more points. The Wright State Raiders want to get to the rim, which won’t be an option against a physical Cavaliers defense that ranks fourth in near-proximity field goal defense (Haslametrics) and leads the nation in blocks per game (6.5).
No. 15 Tennessee State vs No. 2 Iowa State: Iowa State +23.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are a Top-5 team and have the No. 1 defense over the last two months. They should overmatch a Tennessee State Tigers team that faced one of the worst strengths of schedule (322nd) of any team in the Big Dance. Nolan Smith’s squad wants to force turnovers and get out in a run, but the Cyclones take care of the ball — and will therefore take care of business.
No. 13 Hofstra vs No. 4 Alabama: Hofstra +11.5
There’s a lot to like about the Hofstra Pride as a Cinderella nominee. They play up to their competition level, ranking 10th in EvanMiya’s Opponent Adjust metric, and have two go-to guards in Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead (combined 36.1 points per game and +8.05 OBPR). They want to slow the game down (317th in tempo), which could throw an Aden Holloway-less Alabama Crimson Tide off their game plan.
No. 9 Utah State vs No. 8 Villanova: Utah State -1.5
The Big East just didn’t have it this year, sending only three teams to the Big Dance. The Villanova Wildcats are the lowest-seeded of those three, lost to lowly Georgetown by 14 in the conference tournament, and have some worrisome metrics (352nd in Momentum, 332nd in Paper Tiger Factor).
No. 11 Miami (OH) vs No. 6 Tennessee: 
Miami (OH) +10.5
The Miami (OH) RedHawks play five shooters at nearly all times and possess a ton of ball-handling and veteran experience. You don’t win 32 games if you can’t hoop, no matter if the metrics can’t figure out what to do with you. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers are just 297th in effective field goal percentage over the last two months and rank 302nd in Away From Home grade and 327th in Paper Tiger Factor.
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No. 9 Iowa vs No. 8 Clemson: Clemson +2
In a game where both teams are pretty similar on paper, I’ll take the points in a close game with the lowest total (129) of any game on the slate. It was hidden somewhat by the molasses-like tempo, but the Iowa Hawkeyes defense quietly collapsed over the final two months, ranking 347th in effective field goal percentage against.
No. 12 Northern Iowa vs No. 5 St. John's: Northern Iowa +9.5
Yet another low-scoring game — the total is 131.5 — where I’d rather catch the points. The Northern Iowa Panthers have been strong defensively all season, ranking 24th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, but now the offense is catching up (eighth in effective field goal percentage since January 20). It’s no coincidence the Panthers are 11-5 ATS in that span.
No. 10 UCF vs No. 7 UCLA: UCLA -5.5
The UCLA Bruins are a Top-10 team over the last month, whereas the UCF Knights are 69th (BartTorvik). The Bruins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight and are peaking at the right time after the offseason acquisitions took their fair time to gel.
No. 15 Queens vs No. 2 Purdue: Purdue -25.5
The Queens University Royals are 0-5 in Quad 1 games with an average margin of -30.4 points and rank outside the Top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last two months. That, uhh, could be a problem against the most efficient offense in the history of college basketball.
No. 16 Prairie View A&M vs No. 1 Florida: Prairie View A&M +35.5
The Prairie View A&M Panthers have covered the spread in 10 consecutive games and rank fourth in Haslametrics’ Momentum grade. The Panthers found a way to stay within large spreads against Oklahoma State (+30.5), Missouri (+35.5), LSU (+29.5), and Texas A&M (+29.5), whereas the Florida Gators went 0-4 ATS as a favorite of at least 35 points.
No. 13 California Baptist vs No. 4 Kansas: Cal Baptist +14.5
The California Baptist Lancers rank 82nd in BartTorvik in the last two months, led by a stellar defense (24th in adjusted efficiency) and star guard Dominque Daniels (23.2 PPG). The Lancers are 12-5-1 ATS in games outside of Riverside, while the Kansas Jayhawks rank 348th in Away From Home grade.
No. 15 Furman vs No. 2 UConn: UConn -20.5
The Furman Paladins aren’t a great team, but they made the dance because someone had to in a very down year for the SoCon. Dan Hurley is 19-4-1 ATS in postseason tournament games since 2022-23, and his UConn Huskies should shut down looks at the rim, which is what Furman wants offensively.
No. 10 Missouri vs No. 7 Miami: Miami -2
Dennis Gates hasn’t proven that he can win with the Missouri Tigers in the tournament, going 1-3 in the Big Dance and 1-4 ATS in his last five postseason games. The Miami Hurricanes were 12-8 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, whereas Mizzou was 9-12.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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