Kansas vs West Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mountaineers Pick Off Jayhawks

West Virginia dispatched Texas Tech with essentially no issue last night. So what's the reward for that? Getting a rested and defending national champion Kansas in the next round of the Big 12 Tournament this afternoon.

Kansas looks equally dangerous as they did a season ago. Sure, they ended the season with a loss to Texas, but the situation surrounding that game was unique. The Longhorns needed it significantly more than Kansas, as the Jayhawks' seven game winning streak aided them in taking another regular season Big 12 Championship. However, that game changed very little about how I view this Kansas team, and they are still a solid contender to win it all this season.

West Virginia likely clinched an NCAA Tournament bid last night when they grabbed a double-digit victory over Texas Tech. Now, its focus will be improving seeding in this matchup against Kansas.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. West Virginia on Thursday, March 9.

(Editor's Note: This preview was written prior to Thursday's news that Kansas coach Bill Self will miss this game due to illness.)

Kansas vs West Virginia best odds

Kansas vs West Virginia picks and predictions

Rest shouldn't factor in the result too much here. West Virginia spent most of last night's second half in second gear, as they held a double-digit lead through the entirety of it. 

Head coach Bob Huggins noted his team's improvements throughout the season, and pointed to things like rebounding and cutting down turnovers as the things that have keyed it. The Mountaineers are as hot as anyone in the country. They've won four of their last five overall, with the lone loss coming by two points at Kansas just 10 days ago. It isn't easy to bet against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, but this is too many points; give me West Virginia.

West Virginia is really guarding at the moment and making opponents feel them. For the first time, they've been holding opponents to less than a point per possession. The Eers have successfully done that in four of the last five games.

Defending has to be No. 1 on the list when you play Kansas. If you look at the Big 12 teams that have defeated the Jayhawks in regulation games this season, they've all accomplished one statistical feat: Forcing Kansas into 15 or more shots from mid-range. The highest amount Kansas made in any of those games was seven, too.

When these two teams met 10 days ago, West Virginia only forced 10 shots from midrange, and still nearly won in Lawrence. My eye test over the last few weeks of watching the Mountaineers tells me West Virginia could force a few more jumpers here. Something as simple as doing that could edge them over the line today.

West Virginia also holds one significant offensive advantage that I'm not sure was exploited enough in the last matchup — Erik Stevenson can have a game here.

Kansas has been decent in pick-and-roll defense this season, but they have yet to be who they were a season ago in that department. West Virginia's three-guard lineup will put pressure on Gradey Dick defensively, hopefully with Stevenson getting him in switches.

Dick's been one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders in the entire Big 12 this season. He's allowed 56% shooting this season as the primary defender in pick-and-roll situations. Exploiting this is key for West Virginia, and they have the tools to spread Kansas out and do it.

Take West Virginia today. You can never really say Kansas has a bad matchup. They are deservedly the kings of the Big 12, and are the defending champs. However, this certainly isn't an ideal matchup for Kansas, and West Virginia is playing the best they've played all season.

My best bet: West Virginia +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs West Virginia spread analysis

Since I've already spent the above talking about why West Virginia is a good bet today, let me use this space to explain why getting +1300 at DraftKings on West Virginia to win the Big 12 tournament is also a good bet.

For starters, its head coach is a living legend. Unlike some other contenders (Texas, Kansas State, etc.) to win this tournament, you know that West Virginia will have significant coaching experience.

If they get past Bill Self and Kansas today, the Mountaineers' most likely opponent will be Baylor. While that's a formidable foe, the future odds for them to win the Big 12 will likely be cut in half. So not only would West Virginia advance, but they'd also knock out the odds-on favorite to win the tournament. It's also worth noting that West Virginia's three-guard lineup can put similar pressure on Baylor that it can on Kansas. 

This price is a bit off; I see anything at +1000 or better as a value here. I'm making a small wager on West Virginia to win the entire Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas vs West Virginia Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams are good defensively in transition. Because of its superior athleticism, Kansas will always want to turn the pace up on the game, and today will likely be no exception. However, it may not equate to more scoring if that happens today. Both teams own a Top 5 transition defense in the conference, and both are above the national average in points allowed there.

Since I see virtually no value on the total here after dissecting the matchup, I'll note a few trends.

The Under has been a strong bet when Kansas basketball is playing this season. Its games have gone that direction in four straight times, and the Under is 15-7 in its last 22 games after an ATS loss.

Kansas vs West Virginia betting trend to know

West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. West Virginia.

Kansas vs West Virginia game info

Kansas vs West Virginia key injuries

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