Coming off its first Big Ten loss of the season, No. 11 Wisconsin has Indiana coming to town tonight for what should be an evening highlighted by the stars on each side.
The Badgers have been flexing their muscles and sit atop the conference thanks to a methodical offense led by AJ Storr — and while the college basketball odds have Wisconsin as a big favorite at the Kohl Center, Indiana has a scoring star of its own in Malik Reneau and the Hoosiers have shown an ability to hit the Over against Big Ten teams.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Wisconsin on Friday, January 19.
Indiana vs Wisconsin best odds
Indiana vs Wisconsin picks and predictions
Despite its recent loss to Penn State on the road, Wisconsin has had moments where it has looked like Purdue’s biggest challenger in the conference. The offense is far from up-tempo, but it’s been one of the most efficient in college basketball this season and can take advantage of an iffy Indiana defense.
Between the Badgers offense and Reneau being a big enough mismatch for the Hoosiers, the Over has value with the game total being 142.5 at most books, especially with Wisconsin hitting the Over in six of its last eight games after going 3-6 Over in its first nine.
Greg Gard’s team has found its rhythm offensively behind its Storr… I mean star. The St. John’s transfer has been the catalyst for an offense that’s sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and scores 75.6 points per game. Being just 161st nationally in scoring might not jump out, but Wisconsin has played the third-toughest schedule this season in terms of opposing defenses faced, including facing four ranked non-conference foes and being in arguably the toughest conference in the country.
Despite the grinding schedule, Wisconsin has been hitting 47.2% of its shots from the floor, 35.1% of its threes, and 77% of its free throws. Storr has been a game-changer this season, averaging 15.3 ppg, but it’s the depth of this well-rounded lineup that gets this offense scoring.
Storr’s ability to attack the rim and pull up from mid-range is complemented by Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl’s size in the paint, plus Max Klesmit’s shooting from deep.
On the Hoosiers side, Mike Woodson’s program gives up 73.3 ppg this season, 232nd in the country, while ranking 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and has struggled against the better Big Ten offenses, giving up 87 to Purdue and 86 to Nebraska.
Indiana has looked like a team that, at times, could make some noise in the conference tournament due to its frontcourt scoring prowess: Reneau has taken a huge step in his second season, averaging nearly 16 ppg and expanding his game to include shooting threes, which he’s connecting on 40% of the time.
Dealing with Reneau’s size (6-foot-9, 233 pounds) is plenty for most programs, but 7-foot center Kel’el Ware is also capable of creating problems for defenses, averaging 14.2 points and 9.4 rebounds per night... and hitting 41.7% of his treys. Those two are the main cogs behind the IU offense that is Top 50 in the country in both field goal percentage and free throw attempts.
There’s enough there to challenge a Badgers defense that allows just 66.6 points per game, but gives up 35.2% from three and 45.3% from the floor and just let Penn State put up 87.
My best bet: Over 142.5 (-110 at bet365)
Indiana vs Wisconsin same-game parlay
Over 142.5
A.J. Storr Over 15.5 points
Malik Reneau Over 14.5 points
Storr has been on a tear since arriving in Madison and has scored in the double digits in 15 of 17 games this season. He’s scored 16+ points in seven of those outings, including in five of his last nine, and he's averaging 17 per game in Big Ten play.
Reneau carries the Hoosiers offense similarly to Storr with the Badgers. He’s scored at least 15 points in 10 of 18 games, and Reneau has been more willing to shoot from deep as of late, hitting 11 of 12 threes in his last nine games.
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Indiana vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis
Most books have had the Badgers favored by double digits from the start and the line has only shifted by about a half point, with Wisconsin at -10.5 to -11 pretty much everywhere.
For tonight, that spread is in part due to Wisconsin's depth beyond Storr: Crowl averages 12 ppg and while as the seven-footer isn't a floor stretcher per se, teams have to play him honest as he attempts 1.3 triples per game and connects at a 54.5% clip. Meanwhile, Wahl chips in 11.7 ppg and is efficient shooting from the floor, while Klesmit, plus John Blackwell off the bench, sprinkle in just enough rain from three to keep teams worried, hitting more than 40% of their 5.6 attempts per contest.
Gard’s program has gone 10-7 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS in the Big Ten, while the Hoosiers are 8-10 ATS overall and 4-3 in the Big Ten.
The game total opened as high as 144.5 and has come down to 142.5 at most books. Wisconsin is 9-8 betting the Over this season and 4-2 in the Big Ten while Indiana is 9-9 and 3-4 in conference play.
Indiana vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Wisconsin has hit the Team Total Over in 20 of its last 35 games (+2.65 Units/7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Wisconsin.
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Indiana vs Wisconsin game info
| Location: | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Friday, January 19, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Indiana vs Wisconsin key injuries
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