Indiana vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ware Feasts Down Low

We're in for Big Ten basketball when the Indiana Hoosiers travel to face off against the Michigan Wolverines. College basketball odds labeled the Wolverines as 7.5-point faves.

I wouldn't call the Hoosiers impressive through seven games as a whole, but their last game against Maryland is something I was impressed by. That's when Indiana dominated the Terrapins and won by 12 points in a game that wasn't all that close.

In despair, Michigan arrives at its first Big Ten matchup of the season, having lost three of its last four. The last time we saw the Wolverines they were very competitive —  like they have been most of the year —  but ultimately lost to Oregon by just three points at the buzzer in overtime.

Rather than picking a side, I'll be targeting a player prop as my best bet. Find out who I'll be tailing in my college basketball picks for Indiana vs Michigan on Tuesday, December 5. 

Indiana vs Michigan best odds

Indiana vs Michigan picks and predictions

Michigan has started this season with disappointment and atrocious defense, and it's the cornerstone of my handicap this evening.

It's allowed over a point per possession in four of its last five outings, including a game against an abhorrent Texas Tech offense that posted its second-largest point per possession number of the season. These aren't exactly the type of issues you want heading into Big Ten play, and acting Head Coach Phil Martelli knows that. He's chalked some of the problems with simply not trusting one another. 

"Our closeouts are a little bit indicative that I'm just not sure," Martelli said. "I'm just not sure that I can get there. I'm just not sure that somebody has my back." 

And I'm not sure these issues are close to being fixed. Even with an Indiana team that is likely without its best guard, Xavier Johnson, I expect these issues to be exploited. The best way to bet on that happening is attacking the prop market and I'll be grabbing Kel'el Ware Over 16.5 points as my best bet.

There are two significant places where Ware can hurt this Michigan team —  one of those is on the offensive backboard.

Michigan has been horrific on the backboard this season, ranking in the mid-200s in defensive rebounding percentage, and even worse, it ranks in the Bottom 4% of basketball and put-back defense. The Wolverines have allowed 41 "put-back" attempts on the season, and Ware has been influential here —  particularly in the last two games —  where he's scored a combined 8 points.

The other place where Ware should have a ton of success is in ball-screening actions. 

Whether it's been a pick-and-roll or defending a high-low action between a big and guard, Michigan has been at its worst defensively in this spot. Against pick-and-roll handler sets this season, the Wolverines have allowed .95 points per possession. Against pick-and-roll man sets this season, they've allowed 1.13 points per possession.

Ware should be expected to be involved in the former time and time again, given the matchup and player's availability. Ware has yet to be used much in these spots this season, but without many scoring guards on the floor for Indiana, that should be expected to change here. 

Take Ware to go Over this number tonight. It's a number he's eclipsed in two straight games, both of which conveniently came without the services of Xavier Johnson. He should continue to see an increase in his volume here, and the matchup is favorable. It also helps that he'll be one of the primary benefactors from a Michigan team that fouls at the second-highest rate in the Big Ten.

My best bet: Kel'el Ware Over 16.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

Indiana vs Michigan same-game parlay

Kel'el Ware Over 16.5 points

Kel'el Ware 10+ rebounds

+260 at FanDuel

Ware is the man for us today in this same-game parlay. This shouldn't be much of a surprise if you read the above.

One of the reasons I'm taking Ware to go Over his point total tonight is the advantage he'll have on the backboard. It's been a weakness for Michigan, and Ware can expose it here. He's gone Over this number three times this season, but this is one of the worst defensive-rebounding teams he's faced.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Indiana vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

Michigan hasn't impressed me this season, and I'm wondering what it's done to earn the distinction of being a 7.5-point favorite here. I placed a half unit on the Indiana moneyline at +260 and a half unit on the 7.5-point spread.

Indiana has shown rapid defensive improvement over the last few weeks. The matchup against Maryland was the high point when it held the Terps to their season low of .72 points per possession. Dug McDaniel is one of the best individual-scoring guards that Indiana has faced this season, but isolation defense hasn't been a massive issue for IU — it's been allowing the open jump shot. That's not a place where Michigan will kill you.

I have no natural feel for the total in this matchup as I priced it nearly identically to where the market has placed it.

The Wolverines have been a good Over team to start the season, but that's primarily due to them being so bad defensively. Their opponent has yet to have much of an edge either way, with totals going 3-3 over the last six games. If the recent version of Indiana's defense is what we continue to see, then this one should stay Under, but I'm still deciding whether to trust that. 

Indiana vs Michigan betting trend to know

Indiana has hit the moneyline in 19 of its last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan.

Indiana vs Michigan game info

Indiana vs Michigan key injuries

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