The Kentucky Wildcats hope to send their seniors off in style on Saturday when they host the Florida Gators at Rupp Arena.
The Wildcats need the victory to ensure they won’t have to play in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday.
I explain why Alex Condon will make that quite difficult in my Florida vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 7.
Florida vs Kentucky prediction
Florida vs Kentucky best bet: Alex Condon Over 15.5 points (-112)
Alex Condon scored 14 points in the win over the Kentucky Wildcats last month. In the five games since, Condon has averaged 22 points from an average usage rate of nearly 28%.
That increase in usage should continue Saturday against a Kentucky defense ranked 151st in eFG% and 263rd in free throw rate against since the beginning of February.
Condon has posted a 50.8% free throw rate in SEC play and is shooting well from the floor, including 20 baskets at the rim over his last three games.
He dropped 26 on Mississippi State on Tuesday and will have another big game here.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Florida vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Part of Condon’s success has come from second-chance opportunities, and he’s done a great job creating them. He pulled down four offensive boards and 11 in total in the first meeting with the Wildcats, and has averaged nearly eight rebounds a game in his last 11 outings.
The Florida Gators rank second nationally in offensive rebound rate over the last five weeks, an area where the Wildcats continued to get punished. Add in Florida’s outstanding defensive metrics, and there will be plenty of missed shots from a streaky Kentucky offense for Condon to haul in.
Florida vs Kentucky SGP
- Alex Condon Over 15.5 points
- Alex Condon Over 7.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Gators ready to attack
Urban Klavzar is the most consistent outside threat for the Gators. He knocked down five treys in 11 attempts in the first meeting, and has multiple made treys in nine of his last 12 games. He will punish a Kentucky defense that allows far too many quality outside looks.
Florida blew past its team total in the first meeting, and has scored at least 84 points in nine of the last 10 games. The team total Over has cashed in 11 of its last 16 games, a trend I see continuing here.
Florida vs Kentucky SGP
- Alex Condon Over 15.5 points
- Alex Condon Over 7.5 rebounds
- Urban Klavzar Over 1.5 made threes
- Florida team total Over 83.5
Florida vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Florida -5.5 (-115) | Kentucky +5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Florida -260 | Kentucky +210
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Florida vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Florida have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 12 away games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Florida vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, March 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida vs Kentucky key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
