Florida State vs Virginia Tech Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Seminoles Sent Home

Round 2 of the ACC tournament and a busy slate of Conference Tournament odds tips off with a high noon shootout between the Florida State Seminoles and Virginia Tech Hokies on Wednesday.

Although not the ACC Tournament odds favorites, the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds enjoyed a first-round bye. But just how these programs ended up in this matchup leads us down two different paths. 

Florida State backed into the postseason, having won just three of its final nine games including a season-ending win over “dead in the water” Miami.

Meanwhile, the Hokies hopped up the ACC pecking order thanks to a three-game winning streak to close out the calendar. Life hasn’t been easy for VT when playing away from Blacksburg, going 4-11 straight up and against the spread in either road or neutral-site games.

I run down the college basketball odds for this Round 2 tilt and give my free college basketball picks for Florida State vs. Virginia Tech on March 13.

Be sure to also check out our March Madness odds page as the tournament approaches.

Florida State vs Virginia Tech best odds

Florida State vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions

Florida State was able to stop the bleeding in its final regular season game but needed an uncharacteristic output to edge a slumping Miami squad. 

The Seminoles — who rank among the worst outside shooting teams in the ACC — hit 12 of their 33 attempts from beyond the arc with the bulk of those long-range looks from Darin Green Jr., who finished 8-for-15 from deep. 

On the season, FSU averages just over 19 three-point attempts an outing and makes only 6.3 of those shots, good for a 32% clip beyond the arc. That success from distance dips even further away from Tallahassee.

Before that outside anomaly helped Florida State win on Senior Night, FSU had lost two straight and five of its last seven games, including an 83-75 loss against Virginia Tech on February 13. The Hokies pulled away with a 44-point second half and covered as five-point home chalk.

With the ACC tournament swinging to the nation’s capital, VT opens as a three-point neutral-site fave for Wednesday’s second-round matchup. The Hokies also won their season finale and bring a three-game winning streak into the postseason.

Virginia Tech’s offense was clicking during that trio of wins, averaging 83 points on an effective field goal rate of 58.8%. That’s nothing new for VT, which leads the ACC in that advanced metric and has scored 80 points or more in five of its final eight games.

The Noles defense is dreadful and has been even worse this past month. Florida State has allowed an average of 80 points against over its last nine showings. The Noles rank near the bottom of the ACC in most defensive metrics, including an opponent effective field goal rate of 53.2%.

Game models for this Round 2 tournament meeting call for Virginia Tech to win by four points. I believe VT has more in it, considering how well the Hokies are playing entering the postseason and the fact FSU needed a weirdo night from outside to avoid finishing the year on a three-game slide.

My best bet: Virginia Tech -3 (-108 at Pinnacle)

Florida State vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay

Virginia Tech -2.5

Sean Pedulla Over 16.5 points

Hunter Cattor Over 11.5 points

+350 at bet365

A 3-point spread isn’t an option on the SGP menu at bet365, so we’ll go low on a line that has climbed as high as VT -4 at some shops.

Sean Pedulla is projected to flirt with 20 points in this ACC tournament opener after he scored 19 and 26 points in the two matchups against FSU this season.

Hunter Cattor can fill it up from outside and projections have him picking up as many as nine points from beyond the arc. He scored 19 and 20 points versus FSU this season, knocking down 9 of his 11 total 3-point looks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs Virginia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened Virginia Tech as a three-point favorite in Washington, D.C. when the line released Tuesday afternoon. 

As mentioned, VT does see a downtick in play when leaving home (where it owns a 10-6 ATS record). The Hokies lead the ACC in effective field goal rate (55.1%) but that output sinks below 51% outside of Cassell Coliseum. 

Florida State’s offense is full of sound and fury, ranked as the top tempo in the conference. However, that pace hasn’t always bred points with FSU struggling to score consistently. Leonard Hamilton’s crew has only three player averaging double figures and isn’t a great shooting squad, leaving it to struggle in a halfcourt game.

The Seminoles’ defense ranks in the bottom third of the ACC and has been especially porous in the home stretch, allowing an average of 80 points against in the last nine games of the schedule. That inability to slow down opponents has turned out a 3-6 ATS record in that span. 

Wednesday’s total opened at 153 points, just one point shy of the closing total of 152 when these foes last met in Blacksburg in mid-February. 

Virginia Tech is 16-13-2 Over/Under on the year, having spiked that record with a 7-2-1 O/U streak in the final 10 games. The Hokies are 9-5-1 O/U in road/neutral games.

As for Florida State, it’s pumped out a 19-11-1 Over/Under mark, including a 9-5 O/U count away from Tallahassee. The Seminoles’ defense woes to close the conference calendar helped produce a 7-2 O/U clip in the final nine games.

Florida State vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know

Virginia Tech is 15-4 SU and 11-8 ATS as a point spread favorite this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Virginia Tech.

Florida State vs Virginia Tech game info

Florida State vs Virginia Tech key injuries

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