Duke vs Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: ACC's Finest Will Play Each Other Tight

The No. 4 seeded Duke Blue Devils will face off against the No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night.

Both marquee programs have won the ACC Tournament twice during the last eight years and will look to claim another title while strengthening their position for March Madness.

College basketball betting odds have the Blue Devils installed as 2.5-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 123.5 for this clash. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. Virginia on March 11.

Duke vs Virginia best odds

Duke vs Virginia picks and predictions

When these two teams faced off exactly a month ago, Virginia won 69-62 in overtime. It was a razor-close contest that ended in controversy, as Duke's Kyle Filipowski was fouled at the end of regulation but officials ruled that it happened after the buzzer. Despite Duke annihilating Pittsburgh on Thursday night and the Cavaliers smoking Clemson last night, this matchup should be much closer for both sides.

Both schools play at a very slow pace and are very tough on the defensive end of the floor. While the Blue Devils have more offensive firepower and superior rebounding, the Cavaliers boast far better turnover differential and more experience in their starting lineup.

These have been two of the best programs in the conference (and the country) over the last decade and they've typically played each other very tight. Seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by four or fewer points, which doesn't include their latest clash that was decided in OT.

Another factor to consider is how sharp these lines have been during conference tourney week. With oddsmakers having seen most of these teams play each other previously, these lines have been very tough to beat. The spread opened between Duke -1 and -2, so it will likely be a very close contest.

My best play is backing this game to be decided by five or fewer points, which pays out at plus money.

My best bet: Win margin — five points or less (+170 at bet365)

Duke vs Virginia spread analysis

It's been an up-and-down season for Duke under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer, but the team is catching fire at the right time.

The Blue Devils have won eight games in a row and it hasn't been an easy road over the last week. They went to Chapel Hill and defeated their rival Tar Heels last Saturday, hammered a good Pitt team by 27 points on Thursday, and beat top-seeded Miami 85-78 last night. The Blue Devils shot the lights out against the Canes, going 28-51 from the field (55%) and knocking down 21 of 25 free-throw attempts with five players scoring at least 13 points.

The last team that beat the Blue Devils was actually Virginia during that previously mentioned OT clash back on February 11. The Cavaliers are 15-1 at home while the Blue Devils are 4-6 on the road, so this rematch taking place on a neutral site (with plenty of local fans in attendance) should be beneficial for Duke.

After beating the Blue Devils, the Cavaliers went through an ugly stretch where they went 0-4 against the spread which included losses against North Carolina and Boston College. They've since reeled off four-straight wins, getting revenge against the Tar Heels in the ACC tournament quarterfinals before destroying Clemson 76-56 last night.

The Cavs held the normally sharp-shooting Tigers to just 36% shooting from the field while knocking down 50% of their own shots and turning the ball over just five times. That hot shooting from Virginia was a good sign since they had been struggling offensively over the last month.

This is exactly the sort of UVA team we've come to expect during the Tony Bennett era. The Cavaliers play at an extremely slow pace while picking their spots on offense, rarely turn the ball over, and smother opponents on the other end of the floor with their pack-line defense.

They have a lineup loaded with experience led by seniors Armaan Franklin (12.7 points per game), Jayden Gardner (12.3 ppg), and Kihei Clark (11.1 ppg).

Duke has an extremely young lineup with four freshmen starters and another serving as the team's sixth man. Filipowski leads Duke with 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game while fellow freshmen Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor have each scored in double digits for six straight contests.

With a lineup featuring the 7-foot Filipowski, 7-foot-1 center Dereck Lively II and 6-foot-10 rotation big Ryan Young, the Blue Devils have dominated on the glass with the fourth-best rebound rate in the country. However, they've struggled in the turnover department and their turnover margin of minus-2.45 in conference play was the second-worst number in the ACC while Virginia led the field at plus-4.1.

Duke vs Virginia Over/Under analysis

The first meeting between these teams had a total of 126 and only cashed the Over because of overtime. We're seeing an even lower O/U of 123.5 this time around due to the sluggish tempo and lockdown defense of both squads. Virginia is 360th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, while Duke comes in at 292nd.

The Cavaliers are also sixth in the country in scoring defense with 60.3 ppg allowed against Division 1 foes. Duke's defense has been playing at an elite level since inserting an improved Lively back into the starting lineup on January 28. Lively is averaging 3.0 blocks per game since that move, and if you remove the two games during that span where they faced Miami's elite offense, the Blue Devils allowed just 61.9 ppg.

Virginia's offense is nowhere near as good as Miami's and has fallen off since the start of last month. Virginia was 24th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (112.9) at the beginning of February according to Bart Torvik, but in 11 games since, that number has dipped to 107.2 (139th in the country).

While all the signs say this game will be low-scoring, the total might be too low to consider playing the Under. This is especially the case with Duke's offense heating up over the last few weeks and shooting 58.7% from the field in the ACC tourney.

Duke vs Virginia betting trend to know

The Under is 7-2 in Virginia's last nine neutral site games while going 5-2 in Duke's previous seven contests in a neutral setting. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Virginia.

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