No. 19 Kansas has a lot to play for when it hosts No. 2 Baylor at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 27. The Jayhawks have won five of their last six games, and a victory over the undefeated Bears could put them in the conversation for a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Will Bill Self’s group find a way to get it done? Keep reading our Baylor vs. Kansas picks and predictions.
Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks betting preview
Baylor: F Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (questionable)
Kansas: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last five home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Kansas.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement reportBy Patrick Everson
With under an hour until tipoff, the need/liability on this game varies, depending on the sportsbook. For example, at The SuperBook, risk manager Rex Beyers said the point spread is seeing good two-way action, though there's not a lot of volume yet. Baylor opened -5, dipped to -3.5 and is now back up to -4.5. At FanDuel, however, Baylor is taking 83 percent of bets and 81 percent of cash on the spread. There's consensus on the total at FanDuel, too, with the Over attracting 89 percent of bets/78 percent of money. Beyers said The SuperBook is heavy to the Over, as well, but much like on the spread, volume is sluggish.Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Jayhawks have covered in four of their last five meetings with the Bears, and the team now faces a Baylor group that looked miserable in a 77-72 win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Bears had a long COVID-related layoff and looked out of sorts in that game, and that opens the door for a Kansas upset in this one. These teams met in Waco back on January 18, and the Bears won that game by eight points. However, that was arguably Kansas’ worst stretch of games all season, as the Jayhawks had lost four out of five at that point. Now, Bill Self’s team has won five of its last six, with the one loss being a very close one at Texas on Tuesday.
When these teams met in January, Jalen Wilson had only four points on 2-of-7 shooting, and he was in the midst of a stretch where his role was in question. He was playing inconsistent basketball, which made it tough for Self to commit to him as a starter. However, Wilson has been the team’s best player as of late. Over the last seven games, the forward is averaging 14.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game for Kansas, and he has been a real two-way threat. That could be the difference between this outing and last.
Of course, playing at home will also be a tremendous boost to Kansas in this one. The Jayhawks probably suffer more than any other team with not having a full turnout, as they have one of the best crowds in all of college basketball. But any boost they can get will help, and if the Bears are sluggish out of the gates in this one, Kansas could ride the momentum to a nice early lead. Baylor is fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency this year (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com), but didn’t look like its normal self against Iowa State. If the Bears don’t get it together, the Jayhawks’ 11th-ranked defense will swarm them.
PREDICTION: Kansas +3.5 (-110)
As previously mentioned, the Bears looked lousy after a long stretch off the court, and they now face a Jayhawks team that is as good as it gets defensively. Three of Kansas’ last four games went Under the total, and the only reason the Texas game went Over is because the two teams combined to score 15 points in overtime.
Stopping Baylor is no easy task, but if that side doesn’t come out firing, it’s going to be hard for this game to hit this total. Also, the Jayhawks certainly don’t want to play an up-and-down game here, as they know they can’t play into what the Bears do best.
PREDICTION: Under 142.0 (-110)
Baylor vs Kansas betting card
- Kansas +3.5 (-110)
- Under 142.0 (-110)
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