Auburn vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers and Tide In For Low-Scoring Battle

The Auburn Tigers will attempt to solidify their NCAA Tournament status by scoring an upset win when they visit the Alabama Crimson Tide in an SEC battle on Wednesday night.

No. 2 Alabama is in contention for the top overall seed in March Madness, and looks like a true national title contender. Auburn still appears in most tournament bracket projections, but finds its position tenuous after losing five of its last seven games.

The Tide are big favorites at home, but I think the real value for bettors can be found on the total tonight. We’ll take a closer look in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Alabama on March 1.

Auburn vs Alabama best odds

Auburn vs Alabama picks and predictions

Alabama isn’t just one of the best teams in the country, but also one of the most entertaining squads to watch. The Crimson Tide play at a breakneck pace and score 83.3 points per game. Not only do they get a lot of possessions, they are fairly efficient with them, scoring 1.084 points each time they have the ball. Freshman forward Brandon Miller powers the offense, averaging 19.7 points and eight rebounds per night.

Alabama can put up some huge numbers. The Tide have put up over 100 points twice in their past eight games, and also scored 97 against Florida. Yet it would be a mistake to dismiss them as a one-dimensional team.

Defensively, Alabama is among the most efficient teams in the country, something that gets lost at times due to its high-tempo offense. The Crimson Tide give up .899 points per possession, ranking them among the Top 10 defensive teams in the country.

Yes, opponents manage to put up 69.1 points per game against them, but they get to that number only because of how many times they see the ball — as teams are shooting only 37.5% from the field and 27.4% from 3-point range against Alabama. 

Auburn may not have the offensive firepower of the Crimson Tide. However, the Tigers play defense nearly as well, holding opponents to just 65.9 points per game on 39.9% shooting. Those numbers are elite nationally, and only pale in comparison to Alabama’s figures because of how effectively the Crimson Tide contain their opponents. 

As a result, these teams aren’t lined up to produce a shootout despite the way Alabama normally plays. The first meeting between these teams was a relatively contained affair, with the two sides combining for a relatively pedestrian 146 points.

Both teams tend to lock down opponents on the perimeter, and that showed in their first contest, with each side shooting under 30% from deep. Auburn did a solid job slowing down Miller, who scored just 13 points and went 0-for-7 from deep. But the Tigers missed nine straight shots late as the Alabama defense put the clamps on in the clutch.  

Oddsmakers still expect the Crimson Tide to put up big numbers every night, often assigning them totals in the 150s. That was the case in the first meeting with the Tigers, when the Over/Under was set at 156.

These teams didn’t approach that number. Tonight, the total sits at 153.5, showing that the books are making a slight adjustment. It’s still not enough, however. This game should play out very similarly to the first, with tough defense on both sides making the Under the clear value.

My best bet: Under 153.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Auburn vs Alabama spread analysis

Alabama opened tonight’s game as a nine-point favorite. There’s been consistent movement towards the Crimson Tide, and while sites are offering numbers ranging from 9.5 to 10.5, Alabama -10 is starting to settle in as the consensus spread.

As good as the Tide have been, they’ve also been beating the number fairly regularly, going 16-12-1 against the spread this season. Auburn has put up just a 13-16 ATS mark on the year.

Alabama has lost just four games this season, and none of those losses have come at home. It already own an eight-point win over the Tigers on the road, and that came in a game where its best players — including Miller — struggled to shoot the ball. 

The Crimson Tide are arguably the best team in the country and have won seven of their last eight. They’ve generally crushed weaker competition at home, though they did struggle to get past Arkansas on Saturday, beating the Razorbacks 86-83. That comes on the heels of needing overtime to beat the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road.

I expect Alabama to win this game. I expect it to have a fairly comfortable margin of victory. Yet the number is just a bit too high for me to lay the points with the Crimson Tide tonight. I’m staying off the spread here, and don’t see much value on the moneyline either.

Auburn vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total started at 152, and the public has only bet that number up. The consensus Over/Under is now at 153.5, with some sites going as high as 154.5. 

Auburn has been playing hard to the Under lately, coming in below the number in four of its last five games. Alabama has been up and down, hitting the Over in five of its last 10. 

A closer look at those games reveals that Bama’s totals trend strongly with the quality of the defense it is plying against. The Crimson Tide pretty consistently hold teams to under 70 points, with the exception of that shootout against Arkansas over the weekend. The real variable is how well the other team keeps the ferocious Alabama offense in check.

Auburn is among the teams that has kept Alabama under 80 points. The Tigers may not be able to match the firepower of the Crimson Tide — but like several of their SEC rivals — they’ve shown that they can stay in games with Alabama by slowing the pace a bit, limiting transition points, and keeping the Tide from lighting up the scoreboard from beyond the arc. Auburn limited Alabama to just 49 shots, making it nearly impossible to hit the Over. 

Tonight’s game should follow the same pattern. I’m taking the Under, and I’d be comfortable doing so even at the opening line of 152 points. 

Auburn vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Auburn’s last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Alabama.

Auburn vs Alabama game info

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