Arizona State vs Utah Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Madsen Makes His Mark

Wednesday’s first round of the Pac-12 Tournament bracket concludes with a nightcap between the No. 11-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils and the No. 6-seeded Utah Utes.

The Sun Devils swept the two regular-season meetings, becoming one of just two teams to beat the Utes in Salt Lake City and picking up a 12-point win in Tempe. 

According to the conference tournament odds, the Utes are 5.5-point favorites while the total resides at 144.

I have my eyes on the player prop market for this game’s best bet as both teams could be shorthanded depending on the status of Utah forward Branden Carlson. This situation may have opened up some value in the college basketball odds. 

Check out our college basketball picks for Arizona State vs. Utah on Wednesday, March 13 for more. 

Arizona State vs Utah best odds

Arizona State vs Utah picks and predictions

The Utah Utes looked like an NCAA Tournament team for a portion of the year but their bubble has seemingly burst after finishing with a losing record in a Pac-12 Conference that isn’t expected to see much love come Selection Sunday. Their 4-11 record away from home is partly to blame.  

They’re led by star forward Branden Carlson, who's averaging 17.5 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. The fifth-year senior left Utah’s regular-season finale with 17 minutes remaining in the second half due to injury and is labeled as a game-time decision for the opening round of the tournament by head coach Craig Smith. 

Sharpshooter Gabe Madsen (13.3 ppg) and point guard Deivon Smith (12.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.6 assists per game) are the other two players averaging double figures. The Utes check in at 51st overall in KenPom and are well-balanced, ranking 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 53rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

They’ll face the Arizona State Sun Devils in Round 1. Bobby Hurley finds himself on the hot seat after going dancing once in the last four years despite recruiting a decent amount of talent to Tempe. Still, that didn’t stop the Sun Devils from sweeping the two regular season matchups.

Frankie Collins leads the way with 13.6 ppg and excels on the other end of the court, making the Pac-12 All-Defensive Team. Second-leading scorer Jose Perez (13.5 ppg) is no longer with the team — he quit before the regular season finale to prematurely begin his professional career in the Dominican Republic. His absence looms large considering he was the leading scorer in both of his team’s wins over Utah, scoring 21 and 26 points. 

Hurley’s squad is not comprised of a lot of shooters, ranking just 331st in 3-point percentage (30.4%) and 344th in free throw percentage (65.7%). The offense is at its best when it is attacking the rim, ranking 58th in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics. 

Carlson’s presence has some to do with this, but Utah is pretty adequate defending the rim. The Utes rank 40th in near-proximity defense vs. the average opponent. 

On the flip side, Utah’s offense is best from behind the arc and attacking the rim — talk about modern basketball. Arizona State’s defense has been vulnerable to both approaches, ranking 275th in 3-point attempt rate (Haslametrics) and 242nd in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim (59.3% per Hoop-Math). 

Considering Carlson’s uncertain status, I’ll be looking at the player prop market for someone who will need to step up if the Utes are to avoid a sweep. Even if the star big fella goes, it’s unlikely he’s at 100%. One player who stands out as a possible beneficiary is Madsen, who has a made threes prop set at 2.5. 

The senior caught fire to end the year, canning at least three triples in each of his final five games. There’s a good chance that will carry over at T-Mobile Arena, which is typically a friendly environment for shooters.

Madsen has played there twice in his career, nailing four of nine 3-pointers in just 19 minutes against Washington two years ago and then going 3-for-9 from behind the arc against Stanford last season. 

The Sun Devils are typically happy to let teams chuck from behind the arc and it’s hard to envision us getting their best effort defensively with the second-leading player leaving the team before the regular season even concluded. They lost five of their last six games and are facing a Utah team hunting for revenge. 

My best bet: Gabe Madsen Over 2.5 made 3s (-120 at DraftKings)

Arizona State vs Utah same-game parlay

Gabe Madsen Over 2.5 made 3s

Gabe Madesn Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists

Utah -6

+266 at DraftKings

Madsen will need to step up for Utah to avoid the upset considering the questionable tag on his star teammate. The fourth-year vet will be relied on heavily to provide a steadying presence and I’ll be on him delivering.

Arizona State limped to the finish line and then had one of its most integral pieces leave the team. How can anyone have confidence in this team? Hurley’s squad struggled to meet expectations away from home, going 6-10 ATS in games outside of Tempe. 

Per Barttovik, the Utes rank 79th since February 15 while the Sun Devils check in at 122nd. Arizona State’s offense has fallen particularly flat over the last month, ranking 183rd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona State vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Utah -6.5 but has been headed downward, currently residing at either -5.5 or -6 depending on where you look. The total has also been on the move, opening at 145.5 but currently residing at 144. Track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool.

The reduction in Utah’s price likely has to do with Carlson’s uncertain status and the fact the Utes simply haven’t been great away from Salt Lake City, going 2-9 straight up in away games. 

Neither team has been a money-making machine this year — Arizona State is 14-17 ATS while Utah checks in at 15-16 ATS. Both have performed poorly away from home as Arizona State is 6-10 ATS while Utah is 5-10 ATS. 

If you’re into recent history, Arizona State may look appealing — the Sun Devils have covered four straight in this matchup. I don’t see many advantages for Hurley’s squad in this matchup, however, and would need a better number to play the underdog. 

So, what went wrong for the Utes in the two regular-season matchups? The first was a bad shooting day for Utah (41.2% from the field, 58.3% from the stripe) and a hot day for ASU (12 made threes, their second-most all season.

The second saw the Sun Devils get hot from deep again (10-for-21 on threes) while Deivon Smith had his worst day of the season (zero points in 30 minutes). 

It’s unlikely Arizona State continues to have outlier shooting performances and Perez won’t outscore Smith by 21 points again because he’s currently in the Dominican Republic. 

As for the total, this game projects to have a fair amount of possessions between two Top-100 teams in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Both teams have been profitable to the Over with Arizona State at 16-15 O/U and Utah at 17-14 O/U.

Arizona State vs Utah betting trend to know

Madsen has made at least three three-pointers in five straight games overall and in two straight Pac-12 Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. Utah.

Arizona State vs Utah game info

Arizona State vs Utah key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic