Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns are hosting the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, November 22. The Suns are beginning to find their groove despite the ongoing absence of Bradley Beal, while the Warriors remain without Draymond Green and are struggling to put together a non-Steph Curry offense.
NBA odds favor the home Suns, but the Warriors are desperate to get back on track with Curry playing at an MVP level this season.
My free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Suns believe Phoenix’s tendency to blow late leads combined with its rest disadvantage creates a unique betting opportunity in tonight’s fourth quarter.
Warriors vs Suns odds
Warriors vs Suns predictions
It’s a shame we don’t get to see these two teams go at each other at full strength, with both Draymond Green and Bradley Beal sidelined for Wednesday’s contest. But it will still be a show to see former teammates Kevin Durant and Steph Curry each play their own version of hero ball to will their way to victory.
The Phoenix Suns have been playing better than the Golden State Warriors, so it's reasonable they’ve come in as slight favorites for tonight’s game. The Warriors only just ended a six-game skid, but on close inspection, many of those came against quality opponents and with tight margins.
Phoenix has had foibles of its own. One of the most glaring trends has been the Suns' inability to close out games... as Phoenix has a staggering -22 net rating in 4th quarters this season — by far the worst mark of any team. Some of it is surely bad luck, but also something must be made of the thin nature of this squad.
If Durant and Devin Booker are carrying the entire offense, it's only natural they tire out by the time the last frame rolls around. That’s assuming they’re both even playing well in the first place.
The burden and the likelihood of falling to pieces only grow if either Booker or Durant has been having an off game in the first place. The wear and tear and energy expended have only been that much higher.
That’s all without even getting to the fact the Suns played last night (it was against the Portland Trail Blazers, but still). Booker and Durant played in the middle to high 30s in minutes, so it wasn’t a total walkover. They had to play enough that their ability to rally for tonight's game, particularly Durant at his age, is a real question.
One of the differences between these two teams is that for as top-heavy as both are, the Warriors do have a real bench unit these days headed by Chris Paul. As this game drags into the final frame, I’m expecting fatigue to become a major factor for the Suns stars, while I think CP3 should take enough off Steph’s plate for them to come out ahead on the fourth-quarter scoreboard.
My best bet: Warriors fourth-quarter moneyline (-105 at Betway)
Warriors vs Suns same-game parlay
Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 made threes
Andrew Wiggins Over 12.5 points
Chirs Paul Over 25.5 points+rebounds+assists
Since my best bet on a Warriors fourth-quarter moneyline isn’t available to include in today’s same-game parlay, I’m instead taking two Andrew Wiggins props: Over 1.5 threes and Over 12.5 points. I’m then pairing that with the Over on Chris Paul’s points, rebounds, and assist prop of 25.5.
It was lost to history after Chet Holmgren hit a miracle turnaround 3-point jumper to send the game to an extra period and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dominated the Warriors in overtime, but Andrew Wiggins finally showed signs of life against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
He went 5-for-8 from downtown after not hitting two threes in a single game all season, following that up by going 2-for-3 from downtown against the Rockets. At plus money, I’m buying that he’s regained his confidence after a bizarre early slump.
CP3 has all the motivation in the world to dominate this matchup against the Suns team that shipped him out of town last summer. Other than shooting poorly, Paul has been quietly excellent as the de facto floor general of Golden State’s second unit. With Green out, he’s been starting, but he’s still getting plenty of minutes to run the team when Steph hits the bench. He’s hit the Over on this prop number in three straight games.
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Warriors vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the Suns are -2.5-point favorites heading into Wednesday.
With Devin Booker back in the lineup, the Suns offense looks as devastating as advertised. They’ve posted a 124.1 offensive rating over the past two weeks, third best in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass.
How sustainable that proves to be over the full 48 minutes against a rested and veteran Warriors group is why my best bet is what it is, but there’s still a great chance they build enough of a lead through three quarters to win and cover.
Golden State’s overall play on the other hand has been putrid for the last couple of weeks. It's underperforming the spread by 6.7 points per game per Cleaning the Glass and has been Bottom 10 on both sides of the ball. But oddly, most of the futility has come at home. The Warriors are 5-2 against the spread on the road this season.
Wednesday’s total has seen a slight decline from 233.5 to 232.5. That’s a high number, reflective of just how potent the Booker and Durant offense has been this year. Booker has only played in five games, but he’s scoring a scintillating 130.4 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass, and KD is putting up MVP numbers.
It should come as no surprise then that the Over is 10-4 in Suns games this year. This line seems appropriately set given Greens' absence, so this is a stay-away line for me.
Warriors vs Suns betting trend to know
The Warriors are 5-2 ATS on the road in their last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.
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Warriors vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Warriors vs Suns latest injuries
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